Start Jake Bates over Evan McPherson — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Bates' extra red-zone stall and top-10 consensus give him the tiebreaker over McPherson

Both kickers sit behind quality offenses with no missed-game risk, so this comes down to shape, not raw volume — the two project for the same attempts and nearly identical scoring. Bates' offense stalling once more per game in the red zone is actually a plus for his floor, since those drives become field-goal tries instead of touchdowns, and Detroit's larger spread points to more clock-killing possessions that end in three points. McPherson counters with a cleaner accuracy profile and a stadium (open roof, no forecast yet) that hasn't produced any weather concern, but he's rostered and ranked as more of a streaming-caliber option than a top-tier lock. The gap in raw projected points is trivial; the real separation is in role security and how each offense generates chances.

What flips it: A change to Detroit's red-zone efficiency that turns those stalls into touchdowns instead of field-goal tries.

AI editor

Evan McPherson

K14CINvs TB

8.58.58.5 Projected Points

Start· medium

Jake Bates

K9DETvs NO

8.78.78.7 Projected Points

Start· medium

Why Evan McPherson

Start· medium

Starting K with proven big-leg range. Reliable from distance in clutch situations.

27.0 implied total plus 89% accuracy (25/28) and a 63-yard long make McPherson a fine K play — 8.5 projected points, 2.7 XPs baked in.

89% accuracy on far more attempts (25-of-28) shows a steadier track record making the kicks he gets.
Cincinnati's game script at -3.5 still keeps him featured in a competitive, scoring-friendly matchup.

The call

A 27.0 implied team total is a top-tier kicker environment: 2.7 projected extra points plus 1.9 field-goal tries gives him one of the better volume floors at the position.
He's been elite and locked in as PK1 — 89% accuracy on 25-of-28 with a 63-yard long and 50-plus makes in four games, so even stalled drives outside the 40 convert.
Only 1.1 red-zone stalls per game is a mild ceiling cap — this offense finishes drives, which pushes his scoring toward XPs rather than three-pointers.
Open roof with no forecast yet is the one thing to monitor; heavy wind would knock him back into the toss-up tier at K14.

Why Jake Bates

Start· medium

Starting placekicker. Strong-legged kicker with deep range on field-goal attempts.

K9 in a dome with a 27.8 implied total — 2.9 projected XPs plus 1.7 makes and 50-plus range give Bates a top-10 floor.

A K9 consensus rank reflects a more trusted role than McPherson's K14, for redraft or streaming trust.
Detroit stalling more often in the red zone converts drives into kicks rather than touchdowns, padding his ceiling.

The call

The 27.8 implied team total as a 7-point favorite is the key number: that volume of scoring means 2.9 projected extra points on top of 1.7 made field goals, which is exactly how kickers hit 8-plus.
Dome game, no weather risk — one of the few variables that actually separates kickers is neutralized here.
Locked-in PK1 with no injury designation, 79% accuracy (27/34) and a 59-yard long with 50-plus makes in 4 games, so the long-range upside is live.
Only mild caution: 1.9 projected attempts and 1.4 red-zone stalls per game mean he needs the offense to keep stalling short of the goal line for field-goal volume, so the score leans XP-dependent.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Evan McPherson	Jake Bates
Projected points	8.58.58.5	8.78.78.7
Consensus rank	K14	K9
Projected FG attempts	1.9	1.9
Red-zone stalls / game	1.1(2025)	1.4(2025)
Kicking conditions	—	Indoors, no weather risk
Implied total · spread	27.0-3.5	27.8-7.0
Field-goal %	89.3%(2025)	79.4%(2025)
Depth chart	K1	K1
Start/Sit record	—	0–0+1 toss-up