Evan McPherson or Ka'imi Fairbairn: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 3 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Start Fairbairn — the consensus rank and red-zone opportunity edges are too wide to ignore.

Ka'imi Fairbairn is the higher consensus play (K4 to K13) and gets more red-zone stalls to kick from (1.8 to 1.1 per game). McPherson's edge is the game script, 24.0 implied points to 23.5. The gap is wide.

Evan McPherson

Evan McPherson

K13CINvs PIT

Projected Points

Sit
Ka'imi Fairbairn

Ka'imi Fairbairn

K4HOUvs IND

Projected Points

Start
CIN@
PITSun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ETView the game →
HOU@
INDSun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ETView the game →

Why Evan McPherson

Sit

Starting placekicker with big-leg range. Proven clutch postseason performer.

Sit — K13 by consensus, projects K24 this week: 1.1 red-zone stalls a game, and 7.8 pts projected vs PIT.

  • 14 mph wind at kickoff — a real drag on long tries.
  • 1.9 FG tries projected, just under the 2.0 league median this week.
  • CIN's offense stalls in the red zone 1.1 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
  • Vegas has CIN at 24 points as 1.5-point favorites.

Latest on McPherson

Evan McPherson Named AFC Special Teams Player of the Week

Bengals K Evan McPherson today was named AFC Special Teams Player of the Week for his performance in the team’s 33-27 win over Tampa Bay in Week 1.

bengals.com · Sep 16, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Ka'imi Fairbairn

Start

Veteran starting K. Reliable long-range leg and established accuracy.

Start — K4 consensus and projection: 2.3 FG tries projected, above the 2.0 median, and 1.8 red-zone stalls a game.

  • Calm forecast at kickoff.
  • 2.3 FG tries projected, above the 2.0 league median this week.
  • HOU's offense stalls in the red zone 1.8 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
  • Vegas has HOU at 23.5 points as 1.5-point favorites.

Latest on Fairbairn

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

MetricEvan McPhersonKa'imi Fairbairn
Projected points
Consensus rankK13K4
Projected FG attempts1.92.3
Red-zone stalls / game1.1(2025)1.8(2025)
Kicking conditions14 mph wind forecast at kickoffRetractable roof, calm forecast either way
Implied total · spread24.0-1.523.5-1.5
Field-goal %89.3%(2025)91.7%(2025)
Depth chartK1K1
Start/Sit record1–00–1

Recent form

Evan McPherson — last 2 weeks

Week 2vs HOU
Week 1vs TB

Ka'imi Fairbairn — last 2 weeks

Week 2vs CIN
Week 1vs BUF

Signal breakdown

  • 7.8 vs 9.3 projected PPR pointsKa'imi Fairbairn +
  • Rank 13 vs 4Ka'imi Fairbairn +
  • 1.9 vs 2.3 projected attemptsKa'imi Fairbairn +
  • 1.1 vs 1.8 red-zone stalls per gameKa'imi Fairbairn +
  • 14 mph, 70°F, partly cloudy vs 6 mph, 70°F, clearKa'imi Fairbairn +
  • Implied 24.0 vs 23.5 team pointsEvan McPherson +
  • No injury designationseven

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