Cam Little or Trey Smack: Who Should You Start?

Preliminary board

2026 Week 3 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Verdicts sharpen as practice reports land.

Start Little — the consensus rank and red-zone opportunity edges are too wide to ignore.

Cam Little is the higher consensus play (K7 to K18) and gets more red-zone stalls to kick from (1.6 to 1.5 per game). Smack's edge is the game script, 27.0 implied points to 23.5. The gap is narrow.

Cam Little

Cam Little

K7JAXvs NE

Projected Points

Start
Trey Smack

Trey Smack

K18GBvs ATL

Projected Points

Start· medium
NE@
JAXSun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ETView the game →
ATL@
GBThu, Sep 24, 8:15 PM ETView the game →

Why Cam Little

Start

Starting K with elite leg strength. Proven range well beyond 55 yards.

Start — K7 by consensus, projects K12 this week: 1.6 red-zone stalls a game, and 8.7 pts projected vs NE.

  • Calm forecast at kickoff.
  • 2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
  • JAX's offense stalls in the red zone 1.6 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
  • Vegas has JAX at 23.5 points as 1.5-point favorites.

Why Trey Smack

Start· medium

Rookie starting placekicker with a strong leg. Long-range kickoff and field-goal ability; no NFL regular-season sample yet.

27.0 implied total, calm open-air forecast and 1.5 red-zone stalls per game give the PK1 a 2.1-attempt, 2.8-XP floor despite the K18 tag.

  • Calm forecast at kickoff.
  • 2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
  • GB's offense stalls in the red zone 1.5 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
  • Vegas has GB at 27 points as 7.5-point favorites.

The call

  • Vegas is the sell: a 27.0 implied team total as a 7.5-point favorite means both field-goal range trips and extra points, projecting 1.8 makes on 2.1 attempts plus 2.8 PATs.
  • His offense stalls in the red zone 1.5 times per game over 17 games — that's the exact profile that converts scoring chances into kicker points rather than touchdowns.
  • Calm forecast with an open roof removes the one variable that actually separates kickers week to week, and he's locked in as PK1 with no injury designation.
  • The only real knock is the K18 consensus rank, which sits outside 12-team starter range — if you roster a top-10 kicker in a similarly high-total spot, use him instead.

Latest on Smack

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

MetricCam LittleTrey Smack
Projected points
Consensus rankK7K18
Projected FG attempts2.12.1
Red-zone stalls / game1.6(2025)1.5(2025)
Kicking conditionsCalm forecast at kickoffCalm forecast at kickoff
Implied total · spread23.5-1.527.0-7.5
Field-goal %88.2%(2025)—
Depth chartK1K1
Start/Sit record—0–0+2 toss-ups

Recent form

Cam Little — last 2 weeks

Week 2vs DEN
Week 1vs CLE

Trey Smack — last 2 weeks

Week 2vs NYJ
Week 1vs MIN

Signal breakdown

  • 8.7 vs 9.2 projected PPR pointsTrey Smack +
  • Rank 7 vs 18Cam Little +
  • 2.1 vs 2.1 projected attemptsTrey Smack +
  • 1.6 vs 1.5 red-zone stalls per gameCam Little +
  • 8 mph, 86°F, clear vs 2 mph, 59°F, overcasteven
  • Implied 23.5 vs 27.0 team pointsTrey Smack +
  • No injury designationseven

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