Brandon Aubrey or Evan McPherson: Who Should You Start?

Preliminary board

2026 Week 2 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Verdicts sharpen as practice reports land.

Start Aubrey — the consensus rank and projection edges are too wide to ignore.

Brandon Aubrey is the higher consensus play (K1 to K13) and projects 10.8 to McPherson's 7.8. No signal favors McPherson this week. The gap is wide.

Brandon Aubrey

Brandon Aubrey

K1DALvs WSH

Projected Points

Start· high
Evan McPherson

Evan McPherson

K13CINvs HOU

Projected Points

Sit
WSH@
DALSun, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ETView the game →
CIN@
HOUSun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ETView the game →

Why Brandon Aubrey

Start· high

Starting K with elite leg strength. Reliable from extreme distance and on kickoffs.

K1 on the board with a 28.0 implied total, retractable roof and a 64-yard leg — Aubrey is the week's easiest kicker start.

  • Calm forecast at kickoff.
  • 2.4 FG tries projected, above the 2.0 league median this week.
  • DAL's offense stalls in the red zone 1.6 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
  • Vegas has DAL at 28 points as 4.5-point favorites.

The call

  • Consensus K1 at 10.8 projected points: 2.1 FGs on 2.4 attempts plus 3.3 extra points is both the volume and the touchdown equity you want from the K slot.
  • A 28.0 implied team total with a -4.5 spread means plenty of scoring drives, and 1.6 red-zone stalls per game turns the ones that die into kickable points.
  • 86% accuracy (36/42) with a 50-plus make in 7 games and a long of 64 gives him a scoring range no replacement kicker offers.
  • Retractable roof with a calm forecast either way removes weather risk, and he's the locked-in PK1 with no injury designation.

Why Evan McPherson

Sit

Starting placekicker with big-leg range. Proven clutch postseason performer.

Sit — K13 by consensus, projects K24 this week: 1.1 red-zone stalls a game, and 7.8 pts projected vs HOU.

  • Calm forecast at kickoff.
  • 1.9 FG tries projected, just under the 2.0 league median this week.
  • CIN's offense stalls in the red zone 1.1 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
  • Vegas has CIN at 22 points as 2.5-point dogs.

Head-to-head stats

MetricBrandon AubreyEvan McPherson
Projected points
Consensus rankK1K13
Projected FG attempts2.41.9
Red-zone stalls / game1.6(2025)1.1(2025)
Kicking conditionsRetractable roof, calm forecast either wayRetractable roof, calm forecast either way
Implied total · spread28.0-4.522.0+2.5
Field-goal %85.7%(2025)89.3%(2025)
Depth chartK1K1
Start/Sit record—1–0

Recent form

Brandon Aubrey — last 1 week

Week 1vs NYG

Evan McPherson — last 1 week

Week 1vs TB

Signal breakdown

  • 10.8 vs 7.8 projected PPR pointsBrandon Aubrey +
  • Rank 1 vs 13Brandon Aubrey +
  • 2.4 vs 1.9 projected attemptsBrandon Aubrey +
  • 1.6 vs 1.1 red-zone stalls per gameBrandon Aubrey +
  • 7 mph, 99°F, overcast vs 8 mph, 91°F, cleareven
  • Implied 28.0 vs 22.0 team pointsBrandon Aubrey +
  • No injury designationseven

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