Harrison Butker or Harrison Mevis: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 1 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Mevis gets the nod on scoring environment, not field-goal volume

Mevis gets the nod because the Rams' stronger scoring environment should create more conversion chances without sacrificing projected field-goal volume. The edge is meaningful but not huge: the near-identical attempt outlook and calm, open-roof conditions keep Butker firmly in play, while his veteran range and accuracy are safer traits if Kansas City stalls. Mevis' actual risk is a thin career sample and less proven distance, but his stronger team outlook and consensus standing make him the better start.

What flips it: A late downgrade to the Rams' scoring outlook.

AI editor

Harrison Butker

Harrison Butker

K13KCvs DEN

Projected Points

Start· medium
Harrison Mevis

Harrison Mevis

K6LARvs SF

Projected Points

Start

Why Harrison Butker

Start· medium

Veteran starting kicker with big-leg range. Proven under postseason pressure.

Calm, open-roof kickoff, 22.5 implied total and 1.5 red-zone stalls per game give Butker 2.1 FG tries at 87% accuracy — K13 with matching floor.

  • Butker’s big-game track record matters if Kansas City settles for long attempts rather than touchdowns.
  • Calm conditions preserve his range advantage, but they remove a weather-based reason to prefer him.

The call

  • Projected 1.8 makes on 2.1 attempts plus 2.1 extra points is the standard-issue volume you want from a streamed K slot; 8.5 projected points is right on the K13 line rather than below it.
  • Kansas City stalls in the red zone 1.5 times per game, which converts drives into Butker attempts — exactly the profile that separates kickers, and a 22.5 implied total means the offense keeps moving into range.
  • Weather is a non-issue: calm forecast with the roof open, so his 87% accuracy (33/38) and 59-yard long, including 50-plus makes in five games, all play.
  • Risk is the tight -2.5 spread — a game that turns into a shootout or a blowout either way could tilt him toward extra points only, but he's the locked-in PK1 with no designation.

Latest on Butker

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Harrison Mevis

Start

Starting K with strong leg. Big-distance range on field goals; limited career sample.

Start — K6 by consensus, projects K4 this week: 1.6 red-zone stalls a game, and 9.4 pts projected vs SF.

  • A stronger Rams scoring script gives Mevis more ways to score through extra points while preserving his stall-driven floor.
  • His limited career sample, especially from 50-plus, is the real threat to this call.

Latest on Mevis

5 Takeaways from Rams' 20-18 preseason Week 3 win over Chargers: QB usage, Harrison Mevis' perfect preseason, and more

Here are five things that stood out from the Rams' 2026 preseason finale Thursday night at SoFi Stadium.

therams.com · Aug 28, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

MetricHarrison ButkerHarrison Mevis
Projected points
Consensus rankK13K6
Projected FG attempts2.12.0
Red-zone stalls / game1.5(2025)1.6(2025)
Kicking conditionsCalm forecast at kickoffCalm forecast at kickoff
Implied total · spread22.5-2.525.8-3.0
Field-goal %86.8%(2025)92.3%(2025)
Depth chartK1K1

Signal breakdown

  • 8.5 vs 9.4 projected PPR pointsHarrison Mevis +
  • Rank 13 vs 6Harrison Mevis +
  • 2.1 vs 2.0 projected attemptsHarrison Butker +
  • 1.5 vs 1.6 red-zone stalls per gameHarrison Mevis +
  • 7 mph, 88°F, clear vs 2 mph, 53°F, overcasteven
  • Implied 22.5 vs 25.8 team pointsHarrison Mevis +
  • No injury designationseven

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