Deebo Samuel Sr. or MarShawn Lloyd: Who Should You Start?

The call

• The role is real: 72% snaps and a 24% target share as the WR-2 means volume is not in question, and that usage is what keeps him in the flex conversation despite the WR54 tag.
• The projection tells the other side of the story — 8.9 points and a 22.8 implied team total in a 3-point game point to a modest offensive environment, not a shootout that lifts his ceiling.
• The DvP composite (21 of 32) comes off a 0-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so there's no matchup edge to lean on in either direction — treat it as neutral.
• Tiebreaker: in full PPR he's a startable flex on target share alone; if you have a WR with a defined red-zone role or a better game script, sit him.

The call

• The sourced report has Lloyd in line for 15-to-20 touches as the lead back rather than a change-of-pace role, and touch volume is what carries a 12.6-point RB24 projection in PPR.
• Game script cooperates: a 1.5-point spread with a 23.0 implied team total means Green Bay stays balanced and Lloyd should see work in both the run game and on passing downs.
• The DvP composite ranks Minnesota 13 of 32 against the position, but it's a 0-game sample with 0.00 confidence — it's not a reason to fade a back with this workload.
• Risk is the unproven profile: if Green Bay splits the backfield more than reported, Lloyd's floor drops fast. He's a volume bet, not a talent-proven one.