Deebo Samuel Sr. or Jalen McMillan: Who Should You Start?

Samuel's Full-Time Role Outweighs McMillan's Deep-Threat Upside

Samuel's edge here isn't really about points on the page — it's about how often the ball comes his way. A 24% target share as San Francisco's clear WR-2 gives him a weekly floor that McMillan, buried in Tampa Bay's third receiver slot with a fraction of the touches, simply can't match. McMillan's questionable tag adds real uncertainty on top of an already thin role, and four games isn't enough sample to bet he suddenly becomes a bigger part of that offense. Samuel's not without risk — he's boom-bust and facing a game with a tighter spread — but volume wins toss-ups, and he has far more of it.

What flips it: McMillan clearing his questionable tag and posting a real jump in target share this week.

AI editor

Deebo Samuel Sr.

WR52SFvs LAR

5.97.59.1 Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium

Jalen McMillan

WR57TBvs CIN

5.26.78.2 Projected Points

Toss-Up

Why Deebo Samuel Sr.

Toss-Up· medium

24% target share gives a real PPR floor, but a 9.1-point projection and WR51 consensus rank make him a flex dart, not a lineup lock.

72% snap share and true WR-2 role give him target volume McMillan's complementary role can't match.
Clean injury report means his workload is fully guaranteed heading into kickoff, unlike McMillan's.

The call

The usage is legitimate: 72% snap share and a 24% target share as the WR-2 means he's on the field and getting looks every week — that volume plays up in full PPR even on short, low-aDOT work.
The projection tells the other side of the story. 9.1 points and a WR51 consensus rank put him below the typical 12-team starter line, which reflects a matchup and efficiency profile that caps the ceiling against LAR.
Game script is workable but not a boost: a 22.8 implied team total with a 3.0-point spread points to a competitive, moderate-scoring game rather than the pass-heavy chase mode that would inflate his target count.
What tips it: if you're starting three-plus WRs or need a floor play, the target share is enough to roll him out. If you have another WR with a cleaner matchup or touchdown path, sit him.

Why Jalen McMillan

Toss-Up

Rotational WR in complementary role. Smooth route-runner with vertical traits; limited 2025 sample.

Toss-up — WR57 consensus, projects WR61 this week: 12% target share in 2025, Questionable on the latest report.

Route-running traits and vertical ability offer spike-week upside if Tampa Bay leans on him downfield.
Higher implied team total than Samuel's game gives him theoretical scoring environment, if targets ever show up.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Deebo Samuel Sr.	Jalen McMillan
Projected points	5.97.59.1	5.26.78.2
Consensus rank	WR52	WR57
Opponent vs position	LARno ranking yet	CINno ranking yet
Target share	24%(2025)	12%(2025)
Reception share	27%(2025)	15%(2025)
Implied total · spread	22.8+3.0	23.5+3.5
Depth chart	WR2	WR3
Snap share	72%(2025)	52%(2025)
Injury designation	—	Q
Start/Sit record	0–0+1 toss-up	—