Packers D/ST or Chiefs D/ST: Toss-Up — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Too close to call — the edges cancel out.

Packers D/ST and Chiefs D/ST grade out even this week. the Packers's best edge is opponent giveaways (4.0 sacks allowed to 1.8), the Chiefs's best edge is home field (home to away) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.

Packers D/ST

D/STGBvs MIN

5.45.45.4 Projected Points

Start

Chiefs D/ST

D/STKCvs DEN

5.45.45.4 Projected Points

Toss-Up

Why Packers D/ST

Start

Start — the No. 13 defensive matchup this week: MIN gives up 4.0 sacks and 1.8 turnovers a game, and 5.4 pts projected vs MIN.

MIN's offense gives up 4.0 sacks and 1.8 turnovers a game (2025), well above league average.
Vegas has MIN at 21.5 points as 1.5-point dogs.
Started in 12% of leagues, 14th among defenses, in line with a No. 13 matchup.

Why Chiefs D/ST

Toss-Up

Toss-up — a middling defensive matchup (No. 14 this week): DEN protects the ball (1.0 turnovers a game), and at home.

DEN's offense gives up 1.8 sacks and 1.0 turnovers a game (2025), below league average.
Vegas has DEN at 20 points as 2.5-point dogs.
Started in 29% of leagues, 13th among defenses, in line with a No. 14 matchup.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Packers D/ST	Chiefs D/ST
Projected points	5.45.45.4	5.45.45.4
Projection rank	Proj.DST13	Proj.DST14
Started in	12% of leagues	29% of leagues
Opponent sacks allowed / game	4.0(2025)	1.8(2025)
Opponent turnovers / game	1.8(2025)	1.0(2025)
Opponent implied total	21.5	20.0
Home / away	Away	Home
Start/Sit record	—	0–0+1 toss-up