Start Texans D/ST over Chiefs D/ST — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Start the Texans — the lineup-share and opponent giveaway edges are too wide to ignore.

Texans D/ST is started in more leagues (started rank 5 to 13) and faces the more giveaway-prone offense (2.9 sacks and 1.1 turnovers allowed per game to 1.8 and 1.0). the Chiefs's edge is the opponent total, 20.0 to 23.5 opponent implied points. The gap is comfortable.

Texans D/ST

D/STHOUvs BUF

5.35.35.3 Projected Points

Sit

Chiefs D/ST

D/STKCvs DEN

5.45.45.4 Projected Points

Toss-Up

Why Texans D/ST

Sit

Sit — a bottom-tier defensive matchup this week (No. 15): 5.3 pts projected vs BUF.

BUF's offense gives up 2.9 sacks and 1.1 turnovers a game (2025), near league average.
Vegas has BUF at 23.5 points as 1.5-point favorites.
Over-started: 87% of leagues have them in, 5th among defenses, against a No. 15 matchup.

Why Chiefs D/ST

Toss-Up

Toss-up — a middling defensive matchup (No. 14 this week): DEN protects the ball (1.0 turnovers a game), and at home.

DEN's offense gives up 1.8 sacks and 1.0 turnovers a game (2025), below league average.
Vegas has DEN at 20 points as 2.5-point dogs.
Started in 29% of leagues, 13th among defenses, in line with a No. 14 matchup.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Texans D/ST	Chiefs D/ST
Projected points	5.35.35.3	5.45.45.4
Projection rank	Proj.DST15	Proj.DST14
Started in	87% of leagues	29% of leagues
Opponent sacks allowed / game	2.9(2025)	1.8(2025)
Opponent turnovers / game	1.1(2025)	1.0(2025)
Opponent implied total	23.5	20.0
Home / away	Home	Home
Start/Sit record	—	0–0+1 toss-up