Packers D/ST or Texans D/ST: Toss-Up — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Too close to call — the edges cancel out.

Packers D/ST and Texans D/ST grade out even this week. the Packers's best edge is opponent giveaways (4.0 sacks allowed to 2.9), the Texans's best edge is lineup share (started rank 5 to 14) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.

Packers D/ST

D/STGBvs MIN

5.45.45.4 Projected Points

Start

Texans D/ST

D/STHOUvs BUF

5.35.35.3 Projected Points

Sit

Why Packers D/ST

Start

Start — the No. 13 defensive matchup this week: MIN gives up 4.0 sacks and 1.8 turnovers a game, and 5.4 pts projected vs MIN.

MIN's offense gives up 4.0 sacks and 1.8 turnovers a game (2025), well above league average.
Vegas has MIN at 21.5 points as 1.5-point dogs.
Started in 12% of leagues, 14th among defenses, in line with a No. 13 matchup.

Why Texans D/ST

Sit

Sit — a bottom-tier defensive matchup this week (No. 15): 5.3 pts projected vs BUF.

BUF's offense gives up 2.9 sacks and 1.1 turnovers a game (2025), near league average.
Vegas has BUF at 23.5 points as 1.5-point favorites.
Over-started: 87% of leagues have them in, 5th among defenses, against a No. 15 matchup.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Packers D/ST	Texans D/ST
Projected points	5.45.45.4	5.35.35.3
Projection rank	Proj.DST13	Proj.DST15
Started in	12% of leagues	87% of leagues
Opponent sacks allowed / game	4.0(2025)	2.9(2025)
Opponent turnovers / game	1.8(2025)	1.1(2025)
Opponent implied total	21.5	23.5
Home / away	Away	Home