Chiefs D/ST or 49ers D/ST: Who Should You Start?

The call

• Vegas does the heavy lifting: Kansas City is a 6.5-point home favorite and Indianapolis carries just a 20.5 implied total, with the model projecting 19.7 points allowed — a scoring range where a DST still banks points.
• DST11 of 32 on the projection board with 6.5 projected points puts this unit inside the dozen defenses that get started in a 12-team league, and 27% lineup share (crowd rank 13) means it's often available as a streamer.
• Turnover equity is the path to a spike week: the Colts cough it up 1.4 times per game and the model forecasts 2.7 sacks plus 0.7 interceptions at home.
• Risk is the pass-rush ceiling — Indy has allowed only 2.1 sacks per game over 17 games, so if the takeaways don't come this is a 4-to-6 point floor rather than a blow-up.

The call

• Vegas does the heavy lifting: San Francisco is a 10.5-point home favorite and the Dolphins carry an 18.0 implied total, the script that produces pass-happy comeback mode and defensive scoring chances.
• Miami's offense is generous with the ball — 2.9 sacks allowed and 1.4 turnovers per game over 17 games — feeding the 2.5 sacks / 0.6 INT / 14.2 points allowed projection.
• DST12 at 6.4 projected points is firm top-half output, and at just 4% started (crowd rank 21) this unit is sitting on waivers in most 12-team leagues.
• Risk is the usual defense variance: if the game turns into a clock-killing blowout without a takeaway or return score, the floor is closer to 4-5 points.