Dolphins D/ST or Patriots D/ST: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Prefer the Patriots over Miami, but keep both defenses on the bench

Start neither defense; between the two, New England gets the narrow edge because Buffalo's greater turnover exposure offers a clearer path to a splash play than Minnesota's. Miami's slight projection advantage is noise for a defense, while the Vikings' lower expected scoring gives Miami a reasonable countercase. The Patriots' real risk is Buffalo's stronger scoring outlook, especially with New England on the road, so this is a comparison win—not a start recommendation.

What flips it: Buffalo reverting to Minnesota's more careful ball security.

AI editor

Dolphins D/ST

D/STMIAvs MIN

Projected Points

Sit

Patriots D/ST

D/STNEvs BUF

Projected Points

Sit
MIA@
MINSun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ETView the game →
NE@
BUFSun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETView the game →

Why Dolphins D/ST

Sit

Sit — a bottom-tier defensive matchup this week (No. 27): Vegas has MIN at 25.5 points, and 3.3 pts projected vs MIN.

  • Minnesota's lower expected scoring gives Miami the friendlier points-allowed setup.
  • Miami's projection edge is small enough that it doesn't overcome the Vikings' careful ball security.

Why Patriots D/ST

Sit

Sit — a bottom-tier defensive matchup this week (No. 30): Vegas has BUF at 26.3 points, and 3.1 pts projected vs BUF.

  • Buffalo's turnover tendency gives New England the stronger route to a takeaway-driven score.
  • The Patriots are the more commonly rostered fallback, though that crowd preference doesn't make the matchup safe.

Head-to-head stats

MetricDolphins D/STPatriots D/ST
Projected points
Projection rankProj.DST27Proj.DST30
Started in0% of leagues40% of leagues
Opponent sacks allowed / game3.02.7
Opponent turnovers / game0.71.7
Opponent implied total25.526.3
Home / awayAwayAway
Start/Sit record0–0+1 toss-up1–0

Recent form

Dolphins D/ST — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs KC
Week 2vs SF
Week 1vs LV

Patriots D/ST — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs JAX
Week 2vs PIT
Week 1vs SEA

Signal breakdown

  • 3.3 vs 3.1 projected PPR pointsDolphins D/ST +
  • Started rank 32 vs 11 (0% vs 40% of leagues)Patriots D/ST +
  • 3.0 sacks / 0.7 TO vs 2.7 sacks / 1.7 TO per game allowedPatriots D/ST +
  • Opponent implied 25.5 vs 26.3 pointsDolphins D/ST +
  • Away vs Awayeven

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