Raiders D/ST or Dolphins D/ST: Who Should You Start?

The call

• The script is the selling point: Las Vegas is home and favored by 3.0 with Miami's implied total at just 19.3, exactly the low-total profile you stream a defense against.
• Miami coughs it up — 2.9 sacks allowed and 1.4 turnovers per game over 17 games — and the model still only gets to 2.4 sacks and 0.6 interceptions, so the big-play equity is real but thin.
• The projection is the drag: 4.8 points and DST18 among 32 is below a 12-team starter line, and 17.2 projected points allowed means little defensive-scoring cushion.
• If your alternative is a defense facing a top-10 offense or a road dog spot, plug the Raiders in; if you roster a top-12 projected unit, leave this one on the bench.

The call

• The matchup is the whole case: Las Vegas has surrendered 4.0 sacks and coughed up 1.4 turnovers per game, and its implied total is just 22.3 — exactly the kind of offense you stream against.
• The projections don't back the upside. Miami grades DST23 at 4.2 points with only 2.1 sacks, 0.7 interceptions and 23.2 points allowed, which is closer to replacement-level than a set-and-forget week.
• Crowd data agrees with the caution — 0% started, 31st of 32 by lineup share — so this is a bye-week or injury-week plug, not a play over a top-12 unit.
• Tiebreaker: if your rostered defense is out and the alternative is another sub-5-point projection, take the sack-and-turnover volume in Miami. If you have any DST facing a worse offense, sit this one.