Falcons D/ST or Dolphins D/ST: Who Should You Start?

Preliminary board

2026 Week 1 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Verdicts sharpen as practice reports land.

Start the Dolphins — the opponent giveaway and opponent scoring edges are too wide to ignore.

Dolphins D/ST faces the more giveaway-prone offense (4.0 sacks and 1.4 turnovers allowed per game to 2.4 and 0.9) and faces the lower-scoring offense (22.3 implied points to 22.8). the Falcons's edge is lineup share, started rank 28 to 31. The gap is narrow.

Falcons D/ST

D/STATLvs PIT

Projected Points

Toss-Up

Dolphins D/ST

D/STMIAvs LV

Projected Points

Start

Why Falcons D/ST

Toss-Up

Toss-up — a middling defensive matchup (No. 22 this week): on the road, and 4.3 pts projected vs PIT.

  • PIT's offense gives up 2.4 sacks and 0.9 turnovers a game (2025), near league average.
  • Vegas has PIT at 22.8 points as 3-point favorites.
  • Under-started: only 1% of leagues have them in, 28th among defenses, against a No. 22 matchup.

Why Dolphins D/ST

Start

Start — the No. 23 defensive matchup this week: LV gives up 4.0 sacks and 1.4 turnovers a game, and 4.2 pts projected vs LV.

  • LV's offense gives up 4.0 sacks and 1.4 turnovers a game (2025), well above league average.
  • Vegas has LV at 22.3 points as 3-point favorites.
  • Under-started: only 0% of leagues have them in, 31st among defenses, against a No. 23 matchup.

Head-to-head stats

MetricFalcons D/STDolphins D/ST
Projected points
Projection rankProj.DST22Proj.DST23
Started in1% of leagues0% of leagues
Opponent sacks allowed / game2.4(2025)4.0(2025)
Opponent turnovers / game0.9(2025)1.4(2025)
Opponent implied total22.822.3
Home / awayAwayAway

Signal breakdown

  • 4.3 vs 4.2 projected PPR pointsFalcons D/ST +
  • Started rank 28 vs 31 (1% vs 0% of leagues)Falcons D/ST +
  • 2.4 sacks / 0.9 TO vs 4.0 sacks / 1.4 TO per game allowedDolphins D/ST +
  • Opponent implied 22.8 vs 22.3 pointsDolphins D/ST +
  • Away vs Awayeven

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