Start Broncos D/ST over Patriots D/ST — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Broncos D/ST wins a narrow comparison, but neither unit earns a start

Denver gets the call because Kansas City’s lower scoring expectation and stronger public confidence outweigh New England’s much better takeaway environment. The edge is slim, and neither defense has enough projection support to overcome the unfavorable road settings and modest sack outlooks. New England’s higher turnover rate allowed is the best argument against Denver, but the Patriots also face the less forgiving scoring environment for a defensive fantasy result.

What flips it: A meaningful late drop in Seattle’s implied total.

AI editor

Broncos D/ST

D/STDENvs KC

5.95.95.9 Projected Points

Sit

Patriots D/ST

D/STNEvs SEA

4.74.74.7 Projected Points

Sit

Why Broncos D/ST

Sit

Sit — a bottom-tier defensive matchup this week (No. 11): 5.9 pts projected vs KC.

Denver’s lower opponent scoring expectation gives its otherwise modest sack outlook more room to produce.
Heavy lineup support reflects a safer comparative play, even though the unit remains a sit on this slate.

Why Patriots D/ST

Sit

Sit — a bottom-tier defensive matchup this week (No. 19): Vegas has SEA at 24 points, and 4.7 pts projected vs SEA.

Seattle’s turnover rate allowed creates the clearest splash-play path in this matchup.
New England can outperform if takeaways matter more than the game’s elevated scoring expectation.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Broncos D/ST	Patriots D/ST
Projected points	5.95.95.9	4.74.74.7
Projection rank	Proj.DST11	Proj.DST19
Started in	88% of leagues	55% of leagues
Opponent sacks allowed / game	2.9(2025)	2.1(2025)
Opponent turnovers / game	0.9(2025)	1.6(2025)
Opponent implied total	22.5	24.0
Home / away	Away	Away