Jake Bates or Spencer Shrader: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 3 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Start Bates: Detroit’s scoring outlook gives him the edge

Bates gets the nod because Detroit’s higher scoring outlook can support his extra-point floor, while the dome removes weather risk. The consensus gap is much wider than the near-identical projections, so treat that edge as a preference, not a guarantee. Shrader has a real counter: slightly more projected field-goal attempts and excellent accuracy, though that accuracy comes from a limited sample. Keep both kickers in your lineup; Bates’s main risk is Detroit scoring touchdowns instead of creating field-goal chances.

What flips it: If Detroit converts scoring chances into touchdowns rather than field-goal tries, Shrader’s extra-attempt edge could matter.

AI editor

Jake Bates

Jake Bates

K9DETvs NYJ

Projected Points

Start· medium
Spencer Shrader

Spencer Shrader

K21INDvs HOU

Projected Points

Start
NYJ@
DETSun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ETView the game →
HOU@
INDSun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ETView the game →

Why Jake Bates

Start· medium

Starting PK with a massive leg. Big-range field goal threat beyond 55.

K9 with a 27.5 implied total in a dome and 3.0 projected XPs — Bates is a top-10 kicker with no weather or role risk.

  • Detroit’s scoring outlook makes Bates’s extra-point production a meaningful source of stability.
  • His long-range ability gives him a path to points beyond routine attempts.

The call

  • Consensus K9 at 8.8 projected points already clears the replacement bar in a 12-team league; you don't bench a top-10 kicker for a streamer here.
  • Detroit's 27.5 implied total and -9.5 spread point to volume: 3.0 projected extra points plus 1.9 FG attempts, with 1.4 red-zone stalls per game adding chances that die inside the 30.
  • Indoors with no weather risk and PK1 on the depth chart with no injury designation — the two things that actually sink kicker weeks are both off the table.
  • Only real wart is 79% accuracy (27/34), but he has hit from 50-plus in four games with a 59-yard long, so range isn't a limiter.

Why Spencer Shrader

Start

Starting placekicker with a strong leg. Limited career sample and kickoff-touchback value.

Start — K21 by consensus, projects K14 this week: 1.4 red-zone stalls a game, and 8.5 pts projected vs HOU.

  • Shrader’s projected field-goal volume gives him a route to matching Bates even with fewer expected extra points.
  • His accuracy is encouraging, but the small career sample makes it less reassuring.

Head-to-head stats

MetricJake BatesSpencer Shrader
Projected points
Consensus rankK9K21
Projected FG attempts1.92.1
Red-zone stalls / game1.4(2025)1.4(2025)
Kicking conditionsIndoors, no weather riskRetractable roof, calm forecast either way
Implied total · spread27.5-9.522.0+1.5
Field-goal %79.4%(2025)92.9%(2025)
Depth chartK1K1
Start/Sit record0–10–0+1 toss-up

Recent form

Jake Bates — last 2 weeks

Week 2vs BUF
Week 1vs NO

Spencer Shrader — last 2 weeks

Week 2vs KC
Week 1vs BAL

Signal breakdown

  • 8.8 vs 8.5 projected PPR pointsJake Bates +
  • Rank 9 vs 21Jake Bates +
  • 1.9 vs 2.1 projected attemptsSpencer Shrader +
  • 1.4 vs 1.4 red-zone stalls per gameJake Bates +
  • dome vs 5 mph, 71°F, partly cloudyeven
  • Implied 27.5 vs 22.0 team pointsJake Bates +
  • No injury designationseven

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