Harrison Butker or Spencer Shrader: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 3 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Start Butker — the consensus rank and game script edges are too wide to ignore.
Harrison Butker is the higher consensus play (K10 to K21) and plays in the better game script (26.0 implied team points to 22.0). No signal favors Shrader this week. The gap is wide.
Harrison Butker
9.19.19.1 Projected Points
Spencer Shrader
8.58.58.5 Projected Points
Why Harrison Butker
Start· mediumVeteran starting kicker with big-leg range. Proven under postseason pressure.
K10 with a 26.0 implied total, calm open-air forecast and 1.5 red-zone stalls per game — solid volume for a 12-team K slot.
- Calm forecast at kickoff.
- 2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
- KC's offense stalls in the red zone 1.5 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
- Vegas has KC at 26 points as 7.5-point favorites.
The call
- Scoring environment is strong: a 26.0 implied team total and -7.5 spread point to steady drives, backing a projection of 2.1 FG attempts plus 2.9 extra points.
- The offense stalls in the red zone 1.5 times per game, which keeps field-goal chances flowing even on productive days.
- Calm forecast with an open roof removes the weather risk that separates kickers. His 87% accuracy (33/38), 50-plus makes in 5 games and a 59-yard long give him reliable range.
- The risk is a lopsided script where touchdowns replace field goals, capping upside. Still, as PK1 with no designation and a 9.1-point projection at K10, he clears a typical replacement kicker.
Latest on Butker
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Why Spencer Shrader
StartStarting placekicker with a strong leg. Limited career sample and kickoff-touchback value.
Start — K21 by consensus, projects K14 this week: 1.0 red-zone stalls a game, and 8.5 pts projected vs HOU.
- Calm forecast at kickoff.
- 2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
- IND's offense stalls in the red zone 1.0 times a game — that's where kicker points come from.
- Vegas has IND at 22 points as 1.5-point dogs.
Latest on Shrader
Shrader felt a tweak in his groin during pregame warm-ups, but quickly addressed the issue with trainers and wound up connecting on all four of his field goals, including the game-winner, in the Colts' Week 3 win over the Houston Texans.
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Harrison Butker | Spencer Shrader |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 9.19.19.1 | 8.58.58.5 |
| Consensus rank | K10 | K21 |
| Projected FG attempts | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Red-zone stalls / game | 1.5(2025) | 1.0 |
| Kicking conditions | Calm forecast at kickoff | Retractable roof, calm forecast either way |
| Implied total · spread | 26.0-7.5 | 22.0+1.5 |
| Field-goal % | 86.8%(2025) | 92.9%(2025) |
| Depth chart | K1 | K1 |
| Start/Sit record | 1–2 | 0–0+1 toss-up |
Recent form
Harrison Butker — last 2 weeks
| Week 2 | vs IND | 16.016.016.0 |
| Week 1 | vs DEN | 7.07.07.0 |
Spencer Shrader — last 2 weeks
| Week 2 | vs KC | 14.014.014.0 |
| Week 1 | vs BAL | 7.07.07.0 |
Signal breakdown
- 9.1 vs 8.5 projected PPR pointsHarrison Butker +
- Rank 10 vs 21Harrison Butker +
- 2.1 vs 2.1 projected attemptsHarrison Butker +
- 1.5 vs 1.0 red-zone stalls per gameHarrison Butker +
- 4 mph, 84°F, clear vs 6 mph, 70°F, cleareven
- Implied 26.0 vs 22.0 team pointsHarrison Butker +
- No injury designationseven
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