Harrison Butker or Spencer Shrader: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 3 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Start Butker — the consensus rank and game script edges are too wide to ignore.

Harrison Butker is the higher consensus play (K10 to K21) and plays in the better game script (26.0 implied team points to 22.0). No signal favors Shrader this week. The gap is wide.

Harrison Butker

Harrison Butker

K10KCvs MIA

Projected Points

Start· medium
Spencer Shrader

Spencer Shrader

K21INDvs HOU

Projected Points

Start

Why Harrison Butker

Start· medium

Veteran starting kicker with big-leg range. Proven under postseason pressure.

K10 with a 26.0 implied total, calm open-air forecast and 1.5 red-zone stalls per game — solid volume for a 12-team K slot.

  • Calm forecast at kickoff.
  • 2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
  • KC's offense stalls in the red zone 1.5 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
  • Vegas has KC at 26 points as 7.5-point favorites.

The call

  • Scoring environment is strong: a 26.0 implied team total and -7.5 spread point to steady drives, backing a projection of 2.1 FG attempts plus 2.9 extra points.
  • The offense stalls in the red zone 1.5 times per game, which keeps field-goal chances flowing even on productive days.
  • Calm forecast with an open roof removes the weather risk that separates kickers. His 87% accuracy (33/38), 50-plus makes in 5 games and a 59-yard long give him reliable range.
  • The risk is a lopsided script where touchdowns replace field goals, capping upside. Still, as PK1 with no designation and a 9.1-point projection at K10, he clears a typical replacement kicker.

Latest on Butker

VideoESPN · Sep 21, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Spencer Shrader

Start

Starting placekicker with a strong leg. Limited career sample and kickoff-touchback value.

Start — K21 by consensus, projects K14 this week: 1.0 red-zone stalls a game, and 8.5 pts projected vs HOU.

  • Calm forecast at kickoff.
  • 2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
  • IND's offense stalls in the red zone 1.0 times a game — that's where kicker points come from.
  • Vegas has IND at 22 points as 1.5-point dogs.

Latest on Shrader

Shrader felt a tweak in his groin during pregame warm-ups, but quickly addressed the issue with trainers and wound up connecting on all four of his field goals, including the game-winner, in the Colts' Week 3 win over the Houston Texans.

colts.com · Sep 27, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

MetricHarrison ButkerSpencer Shrader
Projected points
Consensus rankK10K21
Projected FG attempts2.12.1
Red-zone stalls / game1.5(2025)1.0
Kicking conditionsCalm forecast at kickoffRetractable roof, calm forecast either way
Implied total · spread26.0-7.522.0+1.5
Field-goal %86.8%(2025)92.9%(2025)
Depth chartK1K1
Start/Sit record1–20–0+1 toss-up

Recent form

Harrison Butker — last 2 weeks

Week 2vs IND
Week 1vs DEN

Spencer Shrader — last 2 weeks

Week 2vs KC
Week 1vs BAL

Signal breakdown

  • 9.1 vs 8.5 projected PPR pointsHarrison Butker +
  • Rank 10 vs 21Harrison Butker +
  • 2.1 vs 2.1 projected attemptsHarrison Butker +
  • 1.5 vs 1.0 red-zone stalls per gameHarrison Butker +
  • 4 mph, 84°F, clear vs 6 mph, 70°F, cleareven
  • Implied 26.0 vs 22.0 team pointsHarrison Butker +
  • No injury designationseven

Compare different players

Week 3215 players
Player A
vs
Player B

Every fantasy-relevant player this week — search or filter by position.

This week’s toughest calls

Get a Start/Sit call on your whole roster →

Save your team once and see a Start, Sit, or Toss-Up verdict on every player, every week — with the matchup, usage and game-script evidence behind each call.

Add to My Team — free

Or browse this week’s NFL games or NFL player props.