Drew Stevens or Tyler Bass? Start Tyler Bass — Week 2 Start/Sit Verdict

Start Bass — the game script and red-zone opportunity edges are too wide to ignore.

Tyler Bass plays in the better game script (27.8 implied team points to 23.5) and gets more red-zone stalls to kick from (1.3 to 0.9 per game). Stevens's edge is attempt volume, 2.0 to 1.8 projected attempts. The gap is narrow.

Drew Stevens

KWSHvs DAL

8.28.28.2 Projected Points

Toss-Up

Tyler Bass

K21BUFvs DET

8.78.78.7 Projected Points

Start· medium

WSH@

DALSun, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ETView the game →

DET@

BUFThu, Sep 17, 8:15 PM ETView the game →

Why Drew Stevens

Toss-Up

Rookie starting placekicker. Strong leg with no prior NFL kicking sample.

Toss-up — projects K17 this week: 0.9 red-zone stalls a game, and 8.2 pts projected vs DAL.

10 mph wind at kickoff (retractable roof, likely closed) — a real drag on long tries.
2.0 FG tries projected, right at the 2.0 league median this week.
WSH's offense stalls in the red zone 0.9 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has WSH at 23.5 points as 4.5-point dogs.

Why Tyler Bass

Start· medium

Starting placekicker. Strong leg on kickoffs and long-range attempts.

27.8 implied total plus calm, open-roof conditions gives Bass a clean 3.1 XP floor and 1.8 FG tries as the locked-in PK1.

Calm forecast at kickoff.
1.8 FG tries projected, just under the 2.0 league median this week.
BUF's offense stalls in the red zone 1.3 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has BUF at 27.8 points as 3-point favorites.

The call

Buffalo's 27.8 implied team total is the driver here — 3.1 projected extra points is a floor most kickers can't match, and it comes with 1.8 FG attempts on top.
Calm forecast with the roof open removes the main thing that separates kickers week to week; no wind or precipitation to shrink the 50-plus range.
Only 1.3 red-zone stalls per game means fewer stalled-drive field goals, which caps the ceiling a bit — that's why he sits at K21 in consensus rank despite 8.7 projected points.
PK1 on the depth chart with no injury designation; nothing about the role is in question.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Drew Stevens	Tyler Bass
Projected points	8.28.28.2	8.78.78.7
Consensus rank	—	K21
Projected FG attempts	2.0	1.8
Red-zone stalls / game	0.9(2025)	1.3(2025)
Kicking conditions	10 mph wind forecast at kickoff (retractable roof, likely closed in poor weather)	Calm forecast at kickoff
Implied total · spread	23.5+4.5	27.8-3.0
Depth chart	K1	K1
Start/Sit record	0–0+1 toss-up	—

Signal breakdown

8.2 vs 8.7 projected PPR pointsTyler Bass +
Consensus position rankeven
2.0 vs 1.8 projected attemptsDrew Stevens +
0.9 vs 1.3 red-zone stalls per gameTyler Bass +
10 mph, 97°F, overcast vs 3 mph, 70°F, overcastTyler Bass +
Implied 23.5 vs 27.8 team pointsTyler Bass +
No injury designationseven

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Drew Stevens or Tyler Bass: Who Should You Start?