Daniel Carlson or Drew Stevens: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 2 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Carlson’s field-goal floor meets Stevens’ stronger scoring environment

Carlson has the more attractive kicker-specific setup: Las Vegas stalls more often in the red zone, and his proven accuracy and range support a steadier field-goal path. Stevens gets the better scoring environment, with Washington favored to create more extra-point chances and a retractable roof that can protect his outlook; the rookie’s lack of NFL kicking history is the real risk. Their nearly identical field-goal opportunities and projections leave Carlson’s reliability balancing Stevens’ touchdown-driven upside.

What flips it: A late roof or weather downgrade for Stevens, or a Carlson availability change.

AI editor

Daniel Carlson

Daniel Carlson

K21NOvs BAL

Projected Points

Sit
Drew Stevens

Drew Stevens

KWSHvs DAL

Projected Points

Toss-Up
NO@
BALSun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ETView the game →
WSH@
DALSun, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ETView the game →

Why Daniel Carlson

Sit

Veteran placekicker with big-leg range. Established accuracy over a long starting run.

Sit — K21 by consensus, projects K24 this week: 1.5 red-zone stalls a game, and 8.0 pts projected vs BAL.

  • More red-zone stalls create a steadier field-goal path.
  • Veteran accuracy and big-leg range reduce uncertainty.

Why Drew Stevens

Toss-Up

Rookie starting placekicker. Strong leg with no prior NFL kicking sample.

Toss-up — projects K17 this week: 0.9 red-zone stalls a game, and 8.2 pts projected vs DAL.

  • Washington’s stronger scoring environment can create extra-point volume.
  • A retractable roof gives the rookie a weather cushion if conditions worsen.

Head-to-head stats

MetricDaniel CarlsonDrew Stevens
Projected points
Consensus rankK21—
Projected FG attempts2.12.0
Red-zone stalls / game1.5(2025)0.9(2025)
Kicking conditions11 mph wind forecast at kickoff10 mph wind forecast at kickoff (retractable roof, likely closed in poor weather)
Implied total · spread19.5+7.523.5+4.5
Field-goal %81.5%(2025)—
Depth chartK1K1
Start/Sit record—0–0+1 toss-up

Recent form

Daniel Carlson — last 1 week

Week 1vs DET

Drew Stevens — last 1 week

Week 1vs PHI

Signal breakdown

  • 8.0 vs 8.2 projected PPR pointsDrew Stevens +
  • Consensus position rankeven
  • 2.1 vs 2.0 projected attemptsDaniel Carlson +
  • 1.5 vs 0.9 red-zone stalls per gameDaniel Carlson +
  • 11 mph, 75°F, overcast vs 10 mph, 97°F, overcastDrew Stevens +
  • Implied 19.5 vs 23.5 team pointsDrew Stevens +
  • No injury designationseven

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