Drew Stevens or Spencer Shrader: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 2 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Stevens brings the better script; Shrader brings the steadier kicking profile

Stevens gets the stronger scoring environment, while Shrader’s offense has shown more willingness to stall inside the red zone. That tradeoff erases the tiny projection gap: Washington offers more touchdown and extra-point upside, but Indianapolis creates the cleaner path to field goals. Shrader’s accuracy and calm conditions make him a credible alternative, while Stevens carries the bigger risk because he is a rookie without an NFL kicking sample. Treat this as a true preference call, not a meaningful projection edge.

What flips it: A materially worse wind forecast for Washington at kickoff.

AI editor

Drew Stevens

Drew Stevens

KWSHvs DAL

Projected Points

Toss-Up
Spencer Shrader

Spencer Shrader

K21INDvs KC

Projected Points

Sit
WSH@
DALSun, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ETView the game →
IND@
KCSun, Sep 20, 8:20 PM ETView the game →

Why Drew Stevens

Toss-Up

Rookie starting placekicker. Strong leg with no prior NFL kicking sample.

Toss-up — projects K17 this week: 0.9 red-zone stalls a game, and 8.2 pts projected vs DAL.

  • Washington’s higher scoring expectation gives Stevens more ways to reach value beyond field goals.
  • The retractable roof can shield his strong leg if wind becomes a concern.

Why Spencer Shrader

Sit

Starting placekicker with a strong leg. Limited career sample and kickoff-touchback value.

Sit — K21 by consensus, projects K20 this week: 1.4 red-zone stalls a game, and 8.1 pts projected vs KC.

  • Indianapolis’ frequent red-zone stalls support field-goal chances even in a lower-scoring offense.
  • A 93% recent accuracy mark and a 52-yard long add confidence if attempts stay level.

Head-to-head stats

MetricDrew StevensSpencer Shrader
Projected points
Consensus rank—K21
Projected FG attempts2.02.0
Red-zone stalls / game0.9(2025)1.4(2025)
Kicking conditions10 mph wind forecast at kickoff (retractable roof, likely closed in poor weather)Calm forecast at kickoff
Implied total · spread23.5+4.520.5+6.5
Field-goal %—92.9%(2025)
Depth chartK1K1
Start/Sit record0–0+1 toss-up0–0+1 toss-up

Recent form

Drew Stevens — last 1 week

Week 1vs PHI

Spencer Shrader — last 1 week

Week 1vs BAL

Signal breakdown

  • 8.2 vs 8.1 projected PPR pointsDrew Stevens +
  • Consensus position rankeven
  • 2.0 vs 2.0 projected attemptseven
  • 0.9 vs 1.4 red-zone stalls per gameSpencer Shrader +
  • 10 mph, 97°F, overcast vs 8 mph, 70°F, overcastSpencer Shrader +
  • Implied 23.5 vs 20.5 team pointsDrew Stevens +
  • No injury designationseven

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