Chris Boswell or Spencer Shrader: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 1 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Boswell's steadier volume edges Shrader's hot small sample

Boswell's case rests on repetition, not upside: Pittsburgh stalls in the red zone a shade more often, funneling extra kicks his way, and his track record over a full season backs the K12 ranking. Shrader's 93% accuracy looks shinier, but it comes on just 14 attempts, and Indianapolis' slightly better implied total doesn't offset how thin that sample is. Both offenses project to similar scoring, so this comes down to trusting the established leg over the hot start. The gap is real but not enormous — either kicker can outkick this projection on a given Sunday.

What flips it: A multi-week accuracy sample for Shrader that holds up under bigger volume.

AI editor

Chris Boswell

Chris Boswell

K12PITvs ATL

Projected Points

Start· medium
Spencer Shrader

Spencer Shrader

K21INDvs BAL

Projected Points

Start

Why Chris Boswell

Start· medium

Veteran starting K and Pro Bowl-caliber leg. Reliable long-range accuracy.

Boswell is the K12 play with a 22.8 implied total, 2.1 projected FG tries and 1.2 red-zone stalls per game feeding the leg.

  • Pittsburgh's red-zone stalls per game slightly outpace Indianapolis, which means more field-goal tries funneling to Boswell.
  • A full season of attempts backs his K12 rank, giving more confidence in that leg than a debut-year sample size.

The call

  • Consensus K12 at 9.0 projected points is squarely startable in a 12-team league — no replacement-level kicker beats that baseline.
  • Pittsburgh's 22.8 implied total plus 1.2 red-zone stalls per game funnels drives into field-goal tries: 1.9 makes on 2.1 attempts with 2.4 extra points projected.
  • He's the locked-in PK1 with no designation, hitting 84% (27/32) and connecting from 50-plus in six games with a 60-yard long, so distance isn't a cap on his range.
  • Only real wrinkle is an open roof with no forecast yet — check wind before kickoff, but nothing in the sheet suggests a problem.

Why Spencer Shrader

Start

Backup place kicker. Limited 2025 sample in a depth/spot role.

Start — K21 by consensus, projects K18 this week: 1.4 red-zone stalls a game, and 8.2 pts projected vs BAL.

  • Indianapolis' implied total is a touch higher, hinting at a few more scoring opportunities overall.
  • His 93% accuracy this year is elite on paper, but it's built on only 14 attempts — not yet a proven workload.

Head-to-head stats

MetricChris BoswellSpencer Shrader
Projected points
Consensus rankK12K21
Projected FG attempts2.12.1
Red-zone stalls / game1.2(2025)1.4(2025)
Implied total · spread22.8-3.023.0+3.5
Field-goal %84.4%(2025)92.9%(2025)
Depth chartK1K1

Signal breakdown

  • 9.0 vs 8.2 projected PPR pointsChris Boswell +
  • Rank 12 vs 21Chris Boswell +
  • 2.1 vs 2.1 projected attemptsChris Boswell +
  • 1.2 vs 1.4 red-zone stalls per gameSpencer Shrader +
  • Kicking weathereven
  • Implied 22.8 vs 23.0 team pointsSpencer Shrader +
  • No injury designationseven

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