Cairo Santos or Harrison Mevis: Who Should You Start?
Preliminary board2026 Week 2 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Verdicts sharpen as practice reports land.
Start Mevis — the consensus rank and game script edges are too wide to ignore.
Harrison Mevis is the higher consensus play (K6 to K11) and plays in the better game script (28.5 implied team points to 24.5). No signal favors Santos this week. The gap is comfortable.
Cairo Santos
K11CHIvs MIN
9.19.19.1 Projected Points
Start· medium
Harrison Mevis
K6LARvs NYG
9.49.49.4 Projected Points
Start· high
Why Cairo Santos
Start· mediumVeteran starting K. Accurate mid-range leg with long tenure as the team's kicker.
K11 with a 24.5 implied total, 2.1 projected FG tries and 1.4 red-zone stalls per game — enough volume to clear the 12-team kicker bar.
- Calm forecast at kickoff.
- 2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
- CHI's offense stalls in the red zone 1.4 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
- Vegas has CHI at 24.5 points as 3.5-point favorites.
The call
- Chicago's 24.5 implied total plus 1.4 red-zone stalls per game is the ideal kicker recipe: enough scoring to pile up extra points (2.7 projected) with drives that die inside the 30 for field goals.
- K11 in a 12-team league is a startable kicker, and the 9.0 projection is fueled by 2.1 attempts — that's real volume, not a one-kick coin flip.
- Santos is locked in as PK1 with no injury designation and an 83% mark (25/30) with a 54-yard long and three 50-plus makes, so the range is there if drives stall early.
- Only real drag is the 10 mph wind under an open roof — modest, not a reason to bench a top-12 kicker, but it caps the ceiling on long tries.
Why Harrison Mevis
Start· highStarting K with strong leg. Big-distance range on field goals; limited career sample.
K6 in a dome with a 28.5 implied total and 1.8 FGs plus 3.3 XPs projected — 92% accuracy and PK1 lock make this an easy K slot.
- Kicks indoors — no weather risk.
- 2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
- LAR's offense stalls in the red zone 1.6 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
- Vegas has LAR at 28.5 points as 8.5-point favorites.
The call
- Dome game means zero weather risk, and the 28.5 implied team total as an 8.5-point favorite points to a high-volume scoring day with 3.3 projected extra points.
- 1.6 red-zone stalls per game keeps the field-goal pipeline full — 2.1 attempts projected with 1.8 makes, right in line with his 92% (12/13) accuracy.
- PK1 with no injury designation and a 52-yard long: the job is locked and the range extends past 50 if needed.
- K6 at 9.5 projected points clears any replacement-level streamer in a 12-team league.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Cairo Santos | Harrison Mevis |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 9.19.19.1 | 9.49.49.4 |
| Consensus rank | K11 | K6 |
| Projected FG attempts | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Red-zone stalls / game | 1.4(2025) | 1.6(2025) |
| Kicking conditions | Calm forecast at kickoff | Indoors, no weather risk |
| Implied total · spread | 24.5-3.5 | 28.5-8.5 |
| Field-goal % | 83.3%(2025) | 92.3%(2025) |
| Depth chart | K1 | K1 |
| Start/Sit record | 0–0+1 toss-up | — |
Recent form
Cairo Santos — last 1 week
| Week 1 | vs CAR | 12.012.012.0 |
Harrison Mevis — last 1 week
| Week 1 | vs SF | 1.01.01.0 |
Signal breakdown
- 9.1 vs 9.4 projected PPR pointsHarrison Mevis +
- Rank 11 vs 6Harrison Mevis +
- 2.1 vs 2.1 projected attemptseven
- 1.4 vs 1.6 red-zone stalls per gameHarrison Mevis +
- 8 mph, 68°F, overcast vs domeeven
- Implied 24.5 vs 28.5 team pointsHarrison Mevis +
- No injury designationseven
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