Wil Lutz or Will Reichard: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 2 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Lutz gets the cleaner setup, but Reichard’s leg keeps this level

Lutz has the better kicker environment: Denver’s higher implied total, slightly more red-zone stalls, and calm weather support steadier chances. Reichard counters with elite accuracy and long-range reliability, but rain creates the more meaningful week-specific risk. With both projected for the same field-goal volume and points, Lutz is the safer start-lean while Reichard’s proven leg keeps the decision essentially level.

What flips it: A worsening rain forecast for Reichard.

AI editor

Wil Lutz

Wil Lutz

K20DENvs JAX

Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium
Will Reichard

Will Reichard

K12MINvs CHI

Projected Points

Sit
JAX@
DENSun, Sep 20, 4:05 PM ETView the game →
MIN@
CHISun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ETView the game →

Why Wil Lutz

Toss-Up· medium

Veteran starting placekicker. Reliable leg with altitude experience on long-range attempts.

K20 projection with a modest 23.0 implied total, but 88% accuracy and 1.4 red-zone stalls per game keep the FG volume real — waiver options decide it.

  • Calm conditions preserve Lutz’s reliable long-range role.
  • Denver’s stronger scoring outlook gives his attempts a sturdier floor.

The call

  • The profile is solid but unspectacular: 2.0 attempts and 2.5 extra points projected for 8.5 points, which lands him K20 — just outside the comfortable top-12 kicker range in a 12-team league.
  • Lutz is a reliable leg with a locked role: PK1, no injury designation, 88% (28/32) on the season with a 57-yard long and 50-plus makes in four games, so 10 mph wind under an open roof is a minor factor, not a disqualifier.
  • The offense's 1.4 red-zone stalls per game are the friendly part of this — those are the trips that turn into his field-goal tries — but a 23.0 implied total on a -2.5 spread caps the ceiling.
  • Tip it to start if your alternative is a bye-week or bad-weather kicker; tip it to sit if a kicker on a team with a higher implied total is sitting on waivers.

Why Will Reichard

Sit

Starting K with strong leg. Handles kickoffs and long-range attempts.

Sit — K12 by consensus, projects K14 this week: rain in the forecast, and 1.3 red-zone stalls a game.

  • Reichard’s accuracy and range can overcome a less favorable scoring environment.
  • His upside rises if Minnesota converts drives into field-goal tries despite the rain.

Head-to-head stats

MetricWil LutzWill Reichard
Projected points
Consensus rankK20K12
Projected FG attempts2.02.0
Red-zone stalls / game1.4(2025)1.3(2025)
Kicking conditionsCalm forecast at kickoffrain forecast at kickoff
Implied total · spread23.0-2.521.0+3.5
Field-goal %87.5%(2025)94.3%(2025)
Depth chartK1K1
Start/Sit record0–0+1 toss-up0–1

Recent form

Wil Lutz — last 1 week

Week 1vs KC

Will Reichard — last 1 week

Week 1vs GB

Signal breakdown

  • 8.5 vs 8.5 projected PPR pointsWill Reichard +
  • Rank 20 vs 12Will Reichard +
  • 2.0 vs 2.0 projected attemptsWill Reichard +
  • 1.4 vs 1.3 red-zone stalls per gameWil Lutz +
  • 8 mph, 76°F, clear vs 9 mph, 68°F, drizzleWil Lutz +
  • Implied 23.0 vs 21.0 team pointsWil Lutz +
  • No injury designationseven

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