Ryan Fitzgerald or Spencer Shrader: Who Should You Start?
Historical comparison from 2026 Week 4 — one of these players isn’t on the current board.
Too close to call — the edges cancel out.
Ryan Fitzgerald and Spencer Shrader grade out even this week. Fitzgerald's best edge is red-zone opportunity (1.7 to 1.0 stalls per game), Shrader's best edge is the game script (24.5 implied points to 22.3) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.
Ryan Fitzgerald
8.78.78.7 Projected Points
Spencer Shrader
9.09.09.0 Projected Points
Why Ryan Fitzgerald
Toss-UpStarting K. Strong-legged placekicker handling all field goal and kickoff duties.
Toss-up — projects K12 this week: 1.7 red-zone stalls a game, and 8.7 pts projected vs DET.
- Calm forecast at kickoff.
- 1.9 FG tries projected, just under the 2.0 league median this week.
- CAR's offense stalls in the red zone 1.7 times a game — that's where kicker points come from.
- Vegas has CAR at 22.3 points as 3-point dogs.
Why Spencer Shrader
Start· lowStarting placekicker with a strong leg. Limited career sample and kickoff-touchback value.
Calm open-roof conditions, a 24.5 implied total and 9.0 projected points back a start, but the K21 consensus rank keeps him fringe.
- Calm forecast at kickoff.
- 2.0 FG tries projected, right at the 2.0 league median this week.
- IND's offense stalls in the red zone 1.0 times a game — that's where kicker points come from.
- Vegas has IND at 24.5 points as 1.5-point dogs.
The call
- The setup is kicker-friendly: a calm forecast with an open roof, a 24.5 implied team total and a 1.5 spread point to a competitive game with steady scoring chances. He projects for 1.8 field goals on 2.0 attempts plus 2.7 extra points.
- Accuracy isn't a worry: 13/14 (93%) in 2025 with a long of 52. However, he has only 1 game with a 50-plus make, so his ceiling depends on volume rather than long-distance bonuses.
- Red-zone stalls of 1.0 per game over 3 games are modest, so field-goal volume isn't guaranteed. The K21 consensus rank sits outside the 12-team starter tier, which is why confidence is low.
- He is PK1 with no designation, and colts.com reports he was a full participant in practice despite a groin injury. A streamer ranked inside the top 12 with similar weather would tip this to a sit.
Latest on Shrader
Spencer Shrader was a full participant in practice despite a groin injury.
Practice Notebook: Spencer Shrader (right groin) a full participant in practice, Ashton Dulin (ankle) remains outcolts.com · Sep 30, 2026Shrader overcame plenty to be the version of himself we saw on Sunday against the Houston Texans.
Shrader felt a tweak in his groin during pregame warm-ups, but quickly addressed the issue with trainers and wound up connecting on all four of his field goals, including the game-winner, in the Colts' Week 3 win over the Houston Texans.
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Ryan Fitzgerald | Spencer Shrader |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 8.78.78.7 | 9.09.09.0 |
| Consensus rank | — | K21 |
| Projected FG attempts | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Red-zone stalls / game | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| Kicking conditions | Calm forecast at kickoff | Calm forecast at kickoff |
| Implied total · spread | 22.3+3.0 | 24.5+1.5 |
| Field-goal % | 82.8%(2025) | 92.9%(2025) |
| Depth chart | K1 | K1 |
| Start/Sit record | 0–0+1 toss-up | 0–0+1 toss-up |
Recent form
Ryan Fitzgerald — last 3 weeks
| Week 3 | vs CLE | 15.015.015.0 |
| Week 2 | vs ATL | 10.010.010.0 |
| Week 1 | vs CHI | 8.08.08.0 |
Spencer Shrader — last 3 weeks
| Week 3 | vs HOU | 17.017.017.0 |
| Week 2 | vs KC | 14.014.014.0 |
| Week 1 | vs BAL | 7.07.07.0 |
Signal breakdown
- 8.7 vs 9.0 projected PPR pointsSpencer Shrader +
- Consensus position rankeven
- 1.9 vs 2.0 projected attemptsSpencer Shrader +
- 1.7 vs 1.0 red-zone stalls per gameRyan Fitzgerald +
- 3 mph, 63°F, overcast vs 5 mph, 63°F, cleareven
- Implied 22.3 vs 24.5 team pointsSpencer Shrader +
- No injury designationseven
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