Start Tyler Loop over Matt Gay — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Start Tyler Loop: Baltimore offers the cleaner path to kicker volume

Start Tyler Loop because Baltimore's stronger scoring outlook and more frequent red-zone stalls create the better path to both field goals and extra points. Matt Gay's dome setting and longer-range leg keep the gap narrow, especially with nearly identical field-goal volume, but his lower team total and shakier accuracy make that environment less valuable. Loop's limited 50-plus range is the real drawback, while Baltimore's public backing amid the Moody competition (ESPN 2026-09-01) reduces but does not erase the job-security risk.

What flips it: A late change in Baltimore's kicking plan after the Moody competition.

Sources: ESPN · Sep 1, 2026

AI editor

Matt Gay

K19LVvs MIA

8.18.18.1 Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium

Tyler Loop

K12BALvs IND

8.58.58.5 Projected Points

Start· medium

Why Matt Gay

Toss-Up· medium

Veteran starting K with big-leg range and an 84.3% career mark, coming off a shaky 13-of-19 season in Washington before a midseason move to San Francisco.

Dome and 1.2 red-zone stalls per game keep him usable, but K19 with 74% accuracy is below the 12-team starter line — stream a better-implied-total leg if available.

The dome removes weather variance, and Gay's big-leg range can matter if Las Vegas stalls just outside scoring distance.
His projected field-goal workload is essentially even with Loop's, so the lower call is driven by conversion and scoring context, not volume.

The call

The setup is clean: indoor game with no weather risk, PK1 with no designation, and a 22.3 implied team total as a 3-point favorite — that's enough volume for 2.1 attempts and 2.2 extra points.
His offense stalling 1.2 times per game inside the red zone is exactly what feeds kicker scoring, and he has 50-plus makes in 4 games with a long of 56, so the range is there.
The drag is efficiency and tier: 74% (17/23) accuracy means the 1.7 makes on 2.1 tries is optimistic, and a K19 rank on 8.1 projected points sits outside the top 12 starters.
Tiebreaker: if you have a dome kicker on an offense with a higher implied total, play him; if Gay is your best available leg, the indoor floor is fine.

Why Tyler Loop

Start· medium

Starting placekicker who handles kickoffs. Accurate inside 50 but limited range, hitting just 1-of-4 from 50-plus as a rookie with a long of 52.

K12 with a 26.5 implied total, 1.9 red-zone stalls per game and 88% accuracy indoors — volume and environment both check out.

Baltimore's extra red-zone stalls make Loop's offense more likely to turn drives into kickable outcomes rather than touchdowns.
Loop's range is limited, but a calmer indoor setting and a higher-scoring offense make distance less central to this matchup.

The call

Baltimore's 26.5 implied team total plus 1.9 red-zone stalls per game is the ideal kicker recipe: plenty of drives, plenty that end in a field-goal try. Projection of 2.0 attempts and 2.6 extra points backs it.
Loop is the locked-in PK1 with no injury designation and 88% accuracy (30/34), so there's no leg-strength or usage risk to work around beyond a modest 52-yard long.
Retractable roof with a calm forecast either way removes the wind and precipitation variance that usually separates kickers — this is a clean scoring environment.
Only real caveat: K12 on 8.5 projected points is a mid-tier start, so a top-8 kicker in a higher-total game on your bench would be the tiebreaker.

Latest on Loop

News & Notes: Tyler Loop Has 'Embraced' Competition From Jake Moody

The Ravens have a completion rate target for Lamar Jackson. Declan Doyle has a timeline for choosing the starting center. Where rookie Zion Young has made strides.

baltimoreravens.com · Sep 2, 2026

Minter backs Loop as Ravens add kicker competition in Moody

Baltimore signed Jake Moody to the practice squad three days after Tyler Loop missed two kicks in the preseason finale.

ESPN · Aug 31, 2026

Jesse Minter still has confidence in K Tyler Loop

Jamison Hensley breaks down the kicking situation for the Ravens.

VideoESPN · Aug 31, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Matt Gay	Tyler Loop
Projected points	8.18.18.1	8.58.58.5
Consensus rank	K19	K12
Projected FG attempts	2.1	2.0
Red-zone stalls / game	1.2(2025)	1.9(2025)
Kicking conditions	Indoors, no weather risk	Retractable roof, calm forecast either way
Implied total · spread	22.3-3.0	26.5-3.5
Field-goal %	73.9%(2025)	88.2%(2025)
Depth chart	K1	K1
Start/Sit record	0–0+1 toss-up	—