Kenny Gainwell or Mark Andrews: Who Should You Start?
Preliminary board2026 Week 2 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Verdicts sharpen as practice reports land.
Andrews' established target role separates him from Gainwell's change-of-pace workload
Mark Andrews gets the nod because his established receiving role gives the nearly identical projections more substance. His red-zone mismatch profile and quarterback rapport support a steadier path to production, while Gainwell remains a No. 2 back whose workload depends on game flow and passing-down usage. Gainwell does benefit from Tampa Bay's favored script, but the matchup evidence is not strong enough to offset the role gap; his actual risk is limited rushing volume, as [CBS Sports 2026-09-14] confirms. Andrews' risk is that a large Baltimore lead suppresses late-game passing, though his starting role remains the stronger bet.
What flips it: A confirmed expansion of Gainwell’s role beyond the No. 2 job.
Sources: CBS Sports · Sep 14, 2026
AI editor
Kenny Gainwell
7.88.910.0 Projected Points
Mark Andrews
6.78.410.1 Projected Points
Kenny Gainwell’s market
Mark Andrews’s market
Why Kenny Gainwell
Toss-UpRB2 and primary kick returner. Change-of-pace back with heavy passing-down usage and receiving production out of the backfield.
Toss-up — RB30 consensus, projects RB34 this week: CLE is the 10th-toughest matchup vs RBs, 24.0 implied team total.
- A favored script could create late rushing chances if Tampa Bay protects its lead.
- Gainwell’s passing-down skill gives him a path to salvage PPR value despite RB2 status.
Latest on Gainwell
Gainwell rushed five times for 15 yards and caught his lone target for three yards in Week 1, working in the No. 2 running back role and taking a sizable share of the 13 total RB touches with Tucker out.
CBS Sports · Sep 14, 2026Gabriel Kahaian joins Brianna Dix and Scott Smith this season in their weekly competition of predicting who the Bucs' brightest star will prove to be in the upcoming game, and two of three picks are players new to the roster in 2026
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Why Mark Andrews
Start· mediumTE1 and red-zone mismatch. Veteran seam-stretcher with strong hands and quarterback rapport.
25% target share and 72% snaps in a 27-point implied offense — Andrews is a top-12 TE role even with a TE15 projection.
- His red-zone mismatch role gives Andrews scoring access beyond ordinary tight-end volume.
- Established quarterback rapport makes his target workload less dependent on a single game script.
The call
- A 25% target share is elite for the position; Andrews is the clear passing-game focal point at TE with a 72% snap share and no injury designation.
- Baltimore's 27.0 implied total and -7.5 spread point to a high-scoring, red-zone-heavy script, which is exactly where Andrews cashes in on touchdowns.
- The DvP composite of 12 of 32 reads mildly unfavorable, but it's a 1-game sample with 0.00 confidence — not enough to override the usage.
- Risk is the 10.1 projection and TE15 label: if Baltimore builds a lead and leans run, the volume ceiling narrows to a 6-8 point day.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Kenny Gainwell | Mark Andrews |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 7.88.910.0 | 6.78.410.1 |
| Consensus rank | RB30 | TE15 |
| Opponent vs position | CLE · 10 of 321-game sample | NO · 12 of 321-game sample |
| Rushing Yards | 25 of 32 | — |
| Rushing TDs | 1 of 32 | — |
| Rushing Attempts | 19 of 32 | — |
| Receptions | 4 of 32 | 18 of 32 |
| Receiving Yards | 11 of 32 | 17 of 32 |
| Anytime TD | 1 of 32 | 1 of 32 |
| Receiving TDs | — | 1 of 32 |
| Targets | — | 24 of 32 |
| Target share | 4% | 25% |
| Reception share | 4% | 24% |
| Implied total · spread | 24.0-5.5 | 27.0-7.5 |
| Depth chart | RB2 | TE1 |
| Snap share | 46% | 72% |
| Start/Sit record | 0–0+1 toss-up | 0–1 |
Recent form
Kenny Gainwell — last 1 week
| Week 1 | vs CIN | 1.82.32.8 |
Mark Andrews — last 1 week
| Week 1 | vs IND | 4.96.98.9 |
Signal breakdown
- 10.0 vs 10.1 projected PPR pointsMark Andrews +
- Rank 30 vs 15Mark Andrews +
- Opponent DvP rank 10 vs 12 (32 = softest)even
- Implied 24.0 vs 27.0 team pointsMark Andrews +
- No injury designationseven
- 46% vs 72% snap shareMark Andrews +
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