Ka'imi Fairbairn or Nick Folk: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Start Fairbairn — the consensus rank and red-zone opportunity edges are too wide to ignore.

Ka'imi Fairbairn is the higher consensus play (K4 to K17) and gets more red-zone stalls to kick from (2.0 to 0.3 per game). Folk's edge is the weather, a dome to 8 mph wind, drizzle. The gap is wide.

Ka'imi Fairbairn

Ka'imi Fairbairn

K4HOUvs DAL

Projected Points

Start· high
Nick Folk

Nick Folk

K17ATLvs NO

Projected Points

Toss-Up
DAL@
HOUSun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETView the game →
ATL@
NOMon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ETView the game →

Why Ka'imi Fairbairn

Start· high

Veteran starting K. Reliable long-range leg and established accuracy.

K4 at 9.9 projected with 2.4 FG attempts, 2.0 red-zone stalls per game and a 25.0 implied total under a calm retractable roof.

  • rain at kickoff (retractable roof, likely closed) — a real drag on long tries.
  • 2.4 FG tries projected, above the 2.0 league median this week.
  • HOU's offense stalls in the red zone 2.0 times a game — that's where kicker points come from.
  • Vegas has HOU at 25 points as 2.5-point favorites.

The call

  • Volume is there: 2.1 makes on 2.4 projected attempts plus 2.4 extra points, backed by an offense stalling in the red zone 2.0 times per game over 3 games.
  • Game script helps. A 25.0 implied team total as 2.5-point favorites points to steady scoring chances without a blowout that would cap kicks.
  • No weather risk with a retractable roof and a calm forecast either way. Leg and accuracy are proven: 92% (44/48) in 2025, 50-plus makes in 6 games, long of 57.
  • Locked in as PK1 with no designation. At consensus K4, he's an easy start over any replacement kicker.

Latest on Fairbairn

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Nick Folk

Toss-Up

Veteran starting kicker. Reliable accuracy and long-track-record consistency in the field-goal role.

Toss-up — K17 by consensus, projects K20 this week: kicks indoors, and 0.3 red-zone stalls a game.

  • Kicks indoors — no weather risk.
  • 2.0 FG tries projected, just under the 2.0 league median this week.
  • ATL's offense stalls in the red zone 0.3 times a game — that's where kicker points come from.
  • Vegas has ATL at 21.5 points as 2.5-point dogs.

Head-to-head stats

MetricKa'imi FairbairnNick Folk
Projected points
Consensus rankK4K17
Projected FG attempts2.42.0
Red-zone stalls / game2.00.3
Kicking conditionsrain forecast at kickoff (retractable roof, likely closed in poor weather)Indoors, no weather risk
Implied total · spread25.0-2.521.5+2.5
Field-goal %91.7%(2025)96.6%(2025)
Depth chartK1K1
Start/Sit record0–10–0+1 toss-up

Recent form

Ka'imi Fairbairn — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs IND
Week 2vs CIN
Week 1vs BUF

Nick Folk — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs GB
Week 2vs CAR
Week 1vs PIT

Signal breakdown

  • 9.9 vs 8.2 projected PPR pointsKa'imi Fairbairn +
  • Rank 4 vs 17Ka'imi Fairbairn +
  • 2.4 vs 2.0 projected attemptsKa'imi Fairbairn +
  • 2.0 vs 0.3 red-zone stalls per gameKa'imi Fairbairn +
  • 8 mph, 77°F, drizzle vs domeNick Folk +
  • Implied 25.0 vs 21.5 team pointsKa'imi Fairbairn +
  • No injury designationseven

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