Texans D/ST or Rams D/ST: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 1 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Texans' pass-rush matchup and Rams' cleaner ranking cancel each other out
Houston's headline number is the sack rate: Buffalo's line is giving up nearly a full sack more per game than San Francisco's, and that's the single biggest lever in this whole comparison. But it's basically the only thing Houston has going for it — Los Angeles answers back with a better bottom-tier ranking, more lineup trust across the league, and a slightly lower opponent implied total. Both units remain sits this week regardless of which one you'd rather bench, and the signals pulling for each side are close to perfectly offsetting, which is exactly why the model lands on even. This is a matchup-preference call, not a talent gap.
What flips it: A worsening Buffalo O-line report or a downgrade to San Francisco's offense tips this either way.
AI editor
Texans D/ST
5.35.35.3 Projected Points
Rams D/ST
6.26.26.2 Projected Points
Why Texans D/ST
SitSit — a bottom-tier defensive matchup this week (No. 15): 5.3 pts projected vs BUF.
- Buffalo's line surrenders sacks at a notably higher clip than San Francisco's, Houston's clearest edge in this pairing.
- Still projects in the bottom half of the league with a high-powered Bills offense expected to move the ball anyway.
Why Rams D/ST
SitSit — a bottom-tier defensive matchup this week (No. 10): SF protects the ball (1.3 turnovers a game), and 6.2 pts projected vs SF.
- Ranks several spots higher and is trusted by more fantasy lineups, reflecting a steadier floor than Houston's.
- San Francisco turns the ball over a touch more often, but that edge is thin against Houston's sack-rate advantage.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Texans D/ST | Rams D/ST |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 5.35.35.3 | 6.26.26.2 |
| Projection rank | Proj.DST15 | Proj.DST10 |
| Started in | 87% of leagues | 89% of leagues |
| Opponent sacks allowed / game | 2.9(2025) | 1.8(2025) |
| Opponent turnovers / game | 1.1(2025) | 1.3(2025) |
| Opponent implied total | 23.5 | 22.8 |
| Home / away | Home | Home |
Signal breakdown
- 5.3 vs 6.2 projected PPR pointsRams D/ST +
- Started rank 5 vs 3 (87% vs 89% of leagues)Rams D/ST +
- 2.9 sacks / 1.1 TO vs 1.8 sacks / 1.3 TO per game allowedTexans D/ST +
- Opponent implied 23.5 vs 22.8 pointsRams D/ST +
- Home vs Homeeven
Compare different players
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This week’s toughest calls
- K. WilliamsKyren WilliamsRBLARvs SF
T. Etienne Jr.Travis Etienne Jr.RBNOvs DET
- T. Etienne Jr.Travis Etienne Jr.RBNOvs DETC. SkatteboCam SkatteboRBNYGvs DAL
- C. SkatteboCam SkatteboRBNYGvs DALD. SwiftD'Andre SwiftRBCHIvs CAR
- D. SwiftD'Andre SwiftRBCHIvs CARB. TutenBhayshul TutenRBJAXvs CLE
- B. TutenBhayshul TutenRBJAXvs CLEB. IrvingBucky IrvingRBTBvs CIN
- B. IrvingBucky IrvingRBTBvs CIND. MontgomeryDavid MontgomeryRBHOUvs BUF
- T. HigginsTee HigginsWRCINvs TB
D. AdamsDavante AdamsWRLARvs SF
- D. AdamsDavante AdamsWRLARvs SFD. MooreDJ MooreWRBUFvs HOU
- D. MooreDJ MooreWRBUFvs HOUJ. WilliamsJameson WilliamsWRDETvs NO
- J. WilliamsJameson WilliamsWRDETvs NOR. OdunzeRome OdunzeWRCHIvs CAR
- R. OdunzeRome OdunzeWRCHIvs CARC. SuttonCourtland SuttonWRDENvs KC
- C. SuttonCourtland SuttonWRDENvs KCC. WatsonChristian WatsonWRGBvs MIN
- K. Pitts Sr.Kyle Pitts Sr.TEATLvs PIT
G. KittleGeorge KittleTESFvs LAR
- G. KittleGeorge KittleTESFvs LARS. LaPortaSam LaPortaTEDETvs NO
- S. LaPortaSam LaPortaTEDETvs NOT. KraftTucker KraftTEGBvs MIN
- T. KraftTucker KraftTEGBvs MINT. KelceTravis KelceTEKCvs DEN
- T. KelceTravis KelceTEKCvs DEND. GoedertDallas GoedertTEPHIvs WSH
- D. GoedertDallas GoedertTEPHIvs WSHJ. FergusonJake FergusonTEDALvs NYG
- J. HurtsJalen HurtsQBPHIvs WSH
D. PrescottDak PrescottQBDALvs NYG
- D. PrescottDak PrescottQBDALvs NYGJ. DartJaxson DartQBNYGvs DAL
- J. DartJaxson DartQBNYGvs DALJ. HerbertJustin HerbertQBLACvs ARI
- J. HerbertJustin HerbertQBLACvs ARIC. WilliamsCaleb WilliamsQBCHIvs CAR
- C. WilliamsCaleb WilliamsQBCHIvs CART. LawrenceTrevor LawrenceQBJAXvs CLE
- T. LawrenceTrevor LawrenceQBJAXvs CLEB. PurdyBrock PurdyQBSFvs LAR
- C. DickerCameron DickerKLACvs ARI
J. BatesJake BatesKDETvs NO
- J. BatesJake BatesKDETvs NOT. LoopTyler LoopKBALvs IND
- T. LoopTyler LoopKBALvs INDH. ButkerHarrison ButkerKKCvs DEN
- H. ButkerHarrison ButkerKKCvs DENC. BoswellChris BoswellKPITvs ATL
- C. BoswellChris BoswellKPITvs ATLE. McPhersonEvan McPhersonKCINvs TB
- E. McPhersonEvan McPhersonKCINvs TBC. McLaughlinChase McLaughlinKTBvs CIN
- Jaguars D/STJaguars D/STDSTJAXvs CLE
Chargers D/STChargers D/STDSTLACvs ARI
- Chargers D/STChargers D/STDSTLACvs ARITitans D/STTitans D/STDSTTENvs NYJ
- Titans D/STTitans D/STDSTTENvs NYJJets D/STJets D/STDSTNYJvs TEN
- Jets D/STJets D/STDSTNYJvs TENEagles D/STEagles D/STDSTPHIvs WSH
- Eagles D/STEagles D/STDSTPHIvs WSHBears D/STBears D/STDSTCHIvs CAR
- Bears D/STBears D/STDSTCHIvs CARPackers D/STPackers D/STDSTGBvs MIN
- T. Etienne Jr.Travis Etienne Jr.RBNOvs DETD. AdamsDavante AdamsWRLARvs SF
- D. AdamsDavante AdamsWRLARvs SFK. WilliamsKyren WilliamsRBLARvs SF
- J. PriceJadarian PriceRBSEAvs NE
T. HigginsTee HigginsWRCINvs TB - T. HigginsTee HigginsWRCINvs TBM. LloydMarShawn LloydRBGBvs MIN
- B. IrvingBucky IrvingRBTBvs CINR. OdunzeRome OdunzeWRCHIvs CAR
- R. OdunzeRome OdunzeWRCHIvs CARB. TutenBhayshul TutenRBJAXvs CLE
- D. SwiftD'Andre SwiftRBCHIvs CARJ. WilliamsJameson WilliamsWRDETvs NO
- D. MooreDJ MooreWRBUFvs HOUT. PollardTony PollardRBTENvs NYJ
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