Texans D/ST or Colts D/ST: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Start the Texans — the lineup-share and opponent scoring edges are too wide to ignore.

Texans D/ST is started in more leagues (started rank 3 to 29) and faces the lower-scoring offense (22.5 implied points to 26.0). No signal favors the Colts this week. The gap is wide.

Texans D/ST

D/STHOUvs DAL

Projected Points

Sit

Colts D/ST

D/STINDvs WSH

Projected Points

Sit· medium
DAL@
HOUSun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETView the game →
IND@
WSHSun, Oct 4, 9:30 AM ETView the game →

Why Texans D/ST

Sit

Sit — a bottom-tier defensive matchup this week (No. 19): DAL protects the ball (0.7 turnovers a game), and 4.9 pts projected vs DAL.

  • DAL's offense gives up 1.0 sacks and 0.7 turnovers a game, below league average.
  • Vegas has DAL at 22.5 points as 2.5-point dogs.
  • Over-started: 75% of leagues have them in, 3rd among defenses, against a No. 19 matchup.

Why Colts D/ST

Sit· medium

DST20 on the road vs a WSH offense allowing just 1.0 sacks and 0.3 turnovers per game, with a 26.0 implied total. Too little upside to start.

  • WSH's offense gives up 1.0 sacks and 0.3 turnovers a game, below league average.
  • Vegas has WSH at 26 points as 1.5-point favorites.
  • Under-started: only 1% of leagues have them in, 29th among defenses, against a No. 20 matchup.

The call

  • The projection of 4.6 points ranks DST20, outside the top 12 that a 12-team league starts, so a typical streamer should match or beat it.
  • The matchup gives little splash-play potential. Washington has allowed only 1.0 sacks and 0.3 turnovers per game over 3 games, which limits the sack and takeaway scoring a defense needs.
  • Game script works against them too. Washington's 26.0 implied total and the 23.2 projected points allowed point to a tough points-allowed tier, and the Colts are playing away.
  • This departs from the model's toss-up lean based on the opponent's low giveaway rate and high implied total. Only 1% of leagues start them, and the crowd rank is 29 of 32. It would take a sharp drop in Washington's projected total to make this closer.

Head-to-head stats

MetricTexans D/STColts D/ST
Projected points
Projection rankProj.DST19Proj.DST20
Started in75% of leagues1% of leagues
Opponent sacks allowed / game1.01.0
Opponent turnovers / game0.70.3
Opponent implied total22.526.0
Home / awayHomeAway

Recent form

Texans D/ST — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs IND
Week 2vs CIN
Week 1vs BUF

Colts D/ST — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs HOU
Week 2vs KC
Week 1vs BAL

Signal breakdown

  • 4.9 vs 4.6 projected PPR pointsTexans D/ST +
  • Started rank 3 vs 29 (75% vs 1% of leagues)Texans D/ST +
  • 1.0 sacks / 0.7 TO vs 1.0 sacks / 0.3 TO per game allowedTexans D/ST +
  • Opponent implied 22.5 vs 26.0 pointsTexans D/ST +
  • Home vs AwayTexans D/ST +

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