Cowboys D/ST or Colts D/ST: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Start the Cowboys — the opponent giveaway and lineup-share edges are too wide to ignore.

Cowboys D/ST faces the more giveaway-prone offense (3.3 sacks and 0.7 turnovers allowed per game to 1.0 and 0.3) and is started in more leagues (started rank 25 to 30). the Colts's edge is the projection, 4.6 to 4.4. The gap is wide.

Cowboys D/ST

D/STDALvs HOU

Projected Points

Sit

Colts D/ST

D/STINDvs WSH

Projected Points

Sit· medium
DAL@
HOUSun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETView the game →
IND@
WSHSun, Oct 4, 9:30 AM ETView the game →

Why Cowboys D/ST

Sit

Sit — a bottom-tier defensive matchup this week (No. 22): Vegas has HOU at 25 points, and 4.4 pts projected vs HOU.

  • HOU's offense gives up 3.3 sacks and 0.7 turnovers a game, near league average.
  • Vegas has HOU at 25 points as 2.5-point favorites.
  • Under-started: only 3% of leagues have them in, 25th among defenses, against a No. 22 matchup.

Why Colts D/ST

Sit· medium

DST20 on the road vs a WSH offense allowing just 1.0 sacks and 0.3 turnovers per game, with a 26.0 implied total. Too little upside to start.

  • WSH's offense gives up 1.0 sacks and 0.3 turnovers a game, below league average.
  • Vegas has WSH at 26 points as 1.5-point favorites.
  • Under-started: only 1% of leagues have them in, 30th among defenses, against a No. 20 matchup.

The call

  • The projection of 4.6 points ranks DST20, outside the top 12 that a 12-team league starts, so a typical streamer should match or beat it.
  • The matchup gives little splash-play potential. Washington has allowed only 1.0 sacks and 0.3 turnovers per game over 3 games, which limits the sack and takeaway scoring a defense needs.
  • Game script works against them too. Washington's 26.0 implied total and the 23.2 projected points allowed point to a tough points-allowed tier, and the Colts are playing away.
  • This departs from the model's toss-up lean based on the opponent's low giveaway rate and high implied total. Only 1% of leagues start them, and the crowd rank is 29 of 32. It would take a sharp drop in Washington's projected total to make this closer.

Head-to-head stats

MetricCowboys D/STColts D/ST
Projected points
Projection rankProj.DST22Proj.DST20
Started in3% of leagues1% of leagues
Opponent sacks allowed / game3.31.0
Opponent turnovers / game0.70.3
Opponent implied total25.026.0
Home / awayAwayAway
Start/Sit record2–0—

Recent form

Cowboys D/ST — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs BAL
Week 2vs WSH
Week 1vs NYG

Colts D/ST — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs HOU
Week 2vs KC
Week 1vs BAL

Signal breakdown

  • 4.4 vs 4.6 projected PPR pointsColts D/ST +
  • Started rank 25 vs 30 (3% vs 1% of leagues)Cowboys D/ST +
  • 3.3 sacks / 0.7 TO vs 1.0 sacks / 0.3 TO per game allowedCowboys D/ST +
  • Opponent implied 25.0 vs 26.0 pointsCowboys D/ST +
  • Away vs Awayeven

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