Drew Stevens or Ryan Fitzgerald: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Stevens has the better scoring setup; Fitzgerald has the better field-goal path

Stevens gets the stronger scoring environment, which supports a steadier route through extra points, while Washington's lower stall rate limits the field-goal chances kickers value. Carolina's more frequent red-zone stalls directly counter that advantage, and Fitzgerald's proven accuracy and range make those chances more dependable; calm, open-roof forecasts offer no separation. Stevens' rookie status adds execution uncertainty, leaving neither kicker with a decisive edge.

What flips it: Carolina turning its red-zone stalls into touchdowns would tip the choice to Stevens.

AI editor

Drew Stevens

Drew Stevens

KWSHvs IND

Projected Points

Start· medium
Ryan Fitzgerald

Ryan Fitzgerald

KCARvs DET

Projected Points

Toss-Up
IND@
WSHSun, Oct 4, 9:30 AM ETView the game →
DET@
CARSun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ETView the game →

Why Drew Stevens

Start· medium

Rookie starting placekicker. Strong leg with no prior NFL kicking sample.

26.0 implied total, 8.4 projected points and calm open-roof weather give Stevens a solid floor of 2.0 FG tries plus 2.3 XPs.

  • Washington's higher scoring outlook gives Stevens a sturdier extra-point path.
  • The rookie has no NFL kicking track record, so execution remains the main risk.

The call

  • A 26.0 implied team total is a strong scoring environment for a kicker. The projection calls for 1.7 made field goals on 2.0 attempts plus 2.3 extra points, good for 8.4 points.
  • Weather is a non-factor: the forecast is calm at kickoff with an open roof (taken 2026-10-01), so there's no wind or precipitation penalty on distance attempts.
  • Role is locked: he is PK1 with no injury designation.
  • The main risk is that the offense stalls in the red zone only 1.0 times per game over a 3-game sample. More finished drives could turn FG tries into XPs. A -1.5 spread points to a competitive game, which keeps the attempt volume steady. That is enough to lean start over the house toss-up, though without high confidence.

Why Ryan Fitzgerald

Toss-Up

Starting K. Strong-legged placekicker handling all field goal and kickoff duties.

Toss-up — projects K12 this week: 1.7 red-zone stalls a game, and 8.7 pts projected vs DET.

  • Carolina's stalled red-zone drives can turn scoring chances into field-goal opportunities.
  • Fitzgerald's established accuracy and long-range leg help him capitalize on those chances.

Head-to-head stats

MetricDrew StevensRyan Fitzgerald
Projected points
Projected FG attempts2.01.9
Red-zone stalls / game1.01.7
Kicking conditionsCalm forecast at kickoffCalm forecast at kickoff
Implied total · spread26.0-1.522.3+3.0
Field-goal %—82.8%(2025)
Depth chartK1K1
Start/Sit record0–0+1 toss-up0–0+1 toss-up

Recent form

Drew Stevens — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs SEA
Week 2vs DAL
Week 1vs PHI

Ryan Fitzgerald — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs CLE
Week 2vs ATL
Week 1vs CHI

Signal breakdown

  • 8.4 vs 8.7 projected PPR pointsRyan Fitzgerald +
  • Consensus position rankeven
  • 2.0 vs 1.9 projected attemptsDrew Stevens +
  • 1.0 vs 1.7 red-zone stalls per gameRyan Fitzgerald +
  • 5 mph, 63°F, clear vs 3 mph, 63°F, overcasteven
  • Implied 26.0 vs 22.3 team pointsDrew Stevens +
  • No injury designationseven

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