Daniel Carlson or Ryan Fitzgerald: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 1 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Too close to call — the edges cancel out.
Daniel Carlson and Ryan Fitzgerald grade out even this week. Carlson's best edge is red-zone opportunity (1.5 to 1.2 stalls per game), Fitzgerald's best edge is the projection (7.8 to 7.7) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.
Daniel Carlson
7.77.77.7 Projected Points
Ryan Fitzgerald
7.87.87.8 Projected Points
Why Daniel Carlson
Toss-UpVeteran placekicker with big-leg range. Established accuracy over a long starting run.
Toss-up — K21 by consensus, projects K23 this week: kicks indoors, and 1.5 red-zone stalls a game.
- Kicks indoors — no weather risk.
- 2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
- NO's offense stalls in the red zone 1.5 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
- Vegas has NO at 20.8 points as 7-point dogs.
Latest on Carlson
A collection of headlines and news about the Saints and the NFL for Tuesday, September 1
"Daniel is going to do a great job for us"
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Why Ryan Fitzgerald
Toss-UpStarting K. Strong-legged placekicker handling all field goal and kickoff duties.
Toss-up — K21 consensus and projection: 1.2 red-zone stalls a game, and 7.8 pts projected vs CHI.
- Calm forecast at kickoff.
- 1.9 FG tries projected, just under the 2.0 league median this week.
- CAR's offense stalls in the red zone 1.2 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
- Vegas has CAR at 21 points as 2.5-point dogs.
Latest on Fitzgerald
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Daniel Carlson | Ryan Fitzgerald |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 7.77.77.7 | 7.87.87.8 |
| Consensus rank | K21 | K21 |
| Projected FG attempts | 2.1 | 1.9 |
| Red-zone stalls / game | 1.5(2025) | 1.2(2025) |
| Kicking conditions | Indoors, no weather risk | Calm forecast at kickoff |
| Implied total · spread | 20.8+7.0 | 21.0+2.5 |
| Field-goal % | 81.5%(2025) | 82.8%(2025) |
| Depth chart | K1 | K1 |
Signal breakdown
- 7.7 vs 7.8 projected PPR pointsRyan Fitzgerald +
- Rank 21 vs 21Daniel Carlson +
- 2.1 vs 1.9 projected attemptsDaniel Carlson +
- 1.5 vs 1.2 red-zone stalls per gameDaniel Carlson +
- dome vs 3 mph, 91°F, overcasteven
- Implied 20.8 vs 21.0 team pointsRyan Fitzgerald +
- No injury designationseven
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