Start Harrison Butker over Trey Smack — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Butker's track record and rank edge tip a razor-thin kicker call

Both kickers sit in the same tier of low-value streamers, and the points separating them are basically noise. What actually matters here is proof: Butker has a full NFL sample with 87% accuracy and five 50-plus makes, while Smack is a talented rookie leg with zero regular-season kicks to lean on. The rank gap between K13 and K17 reflects that experience gap more than raw scoring difference, and it's the biggest signal in the model. Green Bay's slightly friendlier implied total and dome shelter make Smack a fine streaming option, but Butker's proven accuracy under real bodies makes him the safer lean in a near-even matchup.

What flips it: A rough weather forecast surfacing for Kansas City late in the week would flip the lean toward Smack's dome shelter.

Sources: ESPN · Aug 29, 2026

AI editor

Harrison Butker

K13KCvs DEN

8.58.58.5 Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium

Trey Smack

K17GBvs MIN

8.38.38.3 Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium

Why Harrison Butker

Toss-Up· medium

Veteran starting kicker with big-leg range. Proven under postseason pressure.

K13 with a modest 22.5 implied total, but 87% accuracy and 1.5 red-zone stalls per game keep Butker in the streaming mix — weather is the tiebreaker.

An established accuracy track record cuts bust risk versus a rookie with no NFL sample to judge.
Kansas City's projected attempt volume, even on a lower implied total, still edges Green Bay's expected work.

The call

Consensus has him K13 at 8.5 points — literally the first kicker outside a 12-team starting group, so he's replacement-level rather than a set-and-forget play.
The volume case is fine, not special: 2.1 attempts and 2.1 extra points off a 22.5 implied total, with 1.5 red-zone stalls per game feeding the FG tries.
Accuracy is the edge — 87% (33/38) with a 59-yard long and five games with a 50-plus make means he converts the chances he gets, including from distance.
Open roof with no forecast yet is the swing factor: clean conditions push him to a start, wind or precipitation drops him behind a dome kicker with a higher team total.

Latest on Butker

Seattle Seahawks vs. Kansas City Chiefs Game Highlights

ESPN · Aug 28, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Trey Smack

Toss-Up· medium

Rookie starting placekicker with a strong leg. Long-range kickoff and field-goal ability; no NFL regular-season sample yet.

Dome game and 1.5 red-zone stalls per game keep the floor safe, but K17 with a 23.0 implied total is streamer territory in 12-team leagues.

Green Bay's higher implied total and shorter spread suggest steadier scoring drives, even if some stall short.
The dome removes any late-week weather swing that Butker's open-roof game could still see.

The call

Weather is a non-factor — indoor dome, no wind or precipitation risk, so the 1.7-of-2.0 field goal projection and 2.3 extra points should hold.
The offense stalling in the red zone 1.5 times per game is the reason he has a floor at all; those drives convert into the field goal attempts that carry his 8.3 projection.
A 23.0 implied team total and a -1.5 spread point to a tight, moderate-scoring game — enough volume to be usable, not enough to push him past the top 12.
He's the locked-in PK1 with no designation, so if your alternative is a kicker in an outdoor game or on a lower-total offense, Smack is the play; a top-12 kicker with a higher implied total tips it the other way.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Harrison Butker	Trey Smack
Projected points	8.58.58.5	8.38.38.3
Consensus rank	K13	K17
Projected FG attempts	2.1	2.0
Red-zone stalls / game	1.5(2025)	1.5(2025)
Kicking conditions	—	Indoors, no weather risk
Implied total · spread	22.5-2.5	23.0-1.5
Field-goal %	86.8%(2025)	—
Depth chart	K1	K1
Start/Sit record	0–0+1 toss-up	0–0+1 toss-up