Nick Folk or Ryan Fitzgerald: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 1 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Too close to call — the edges cancel out.
Nick Folk and Ryan Fitzgerald grade out even this week. Folk's best edge is attempt volume (2.0 to 1.9 projected attempts), Fitzgerald's best edge is the game script (21.0 implied points to 19.8) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.
Nick Folk
7.87.87.8 Projected Points
Ryan Fitzgerald
7.87.87.8 Projected Points
Why Nick Folk
Toss-UpVeteran starting kicker. Reliable accuracy and long-track-record consistency in the field-goal role.
Toss-up — K21 by consensus, projects K22 this week: 1.2 red-zone stalls a game, and 7.8 pts projected vs PIT.
- Calm forecast at kickoff.
- 2.0 FG tries projected, right at the 2.0 league median this week.
- ATL's offense stalls in the red zone 1.2 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
- Vegas has ATL at 19.8 points as 3-point dogs.
Why Ryan Fitzgerald
Toss-UpStarting K. Strong-legged placekicker handling all field goal and kickoff duties.
Toss-up — K21 consensus and projection: 1.2 red-zone stalls a game, and 7.8 pts projected vs CHI.
- Calm forecast at kickoff.
- 1.9 FG tries projected, just under the 2.0 league median this week.
- CAR's offense stalls in the red zone 1.2 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
- Vegas has CAR at 21 points as 2.5-point dogs.
Latest on Fitzgerald
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Nick Folk | Ryan Fitzgerald |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 7.87.87.8 | 7.87.87.8 |
| Consensus rank | K21 | K21 |
| Projected FG attempts | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| Red-zone stalls / game | 1.2(2025) | 1.2(2025) |
| Kicking conditions | Calm forecast at kickoff | Calm forecast at kickoff |
| Implied total · spread | 19.8+3.0 | 21.0+2.5 |
| Field-goal % | 96.6%(2025) | 82.8%(2025) |
| Depth chart | K1 | K1 |
Signal breakdown
- 7.8 vs 7.8 projected PPR pointsRyan Fitzgerald +
- Rank 21 vs 21even
- 2.0 vs 1.9 projected attemptsNick Folk +
- 1.2 vs 1.2 red-zone stalls per gameRyan Fitzgerald +
- 5 mph, 82°F, partly cloudy vs 3 mph, 91°F, overcasteven
- Implied 19.8 vs 21.0 team pointsRyan Fitzgerald +
- No injury designationseven
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