Nick Folk or Tyler Bass: Toss-Up — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Too close to call — the edges cancel out.

Nick Folk and Tyler Bass grade out even this week. Folk's best edge is the weather (4 mph wind, clear to 9 mph wind, showers), Bass's best edge is the game script (23.5 implied points to 19.8) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.

Nick Folk

K21ATLvs PIT

7.87.87.8 Projected Points

Toss-Up

Tyler Bass

K21BUFvs HOU

7.57.57.5 Projected Points

Sit

Why Nick Folk

Toss-Up

Veteran starting kicker. Reliable accuracy and long-track-record consistency in the field-goal role.

Toss-up — K21 by consensus, projects K22 this week: 1.2 red-zone stalls a game, and 7.8 pts projected vs PIT.

Calm forecast at kickoff.
2.0 FG tries projected, right at the 2.0 league median this week.
ATL's offense stalls in the red zone 1.2 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has ATL at 19.8 points as 3-point dogs.

Why Tyler Bass

Sit

Starting placekicker. Strong leg on kickoffs and long-range attempts.

Sit — K21 by consensus, projects K27 this week: rain in the forecast, and 1.3 red-zone stalls a game.

rain at kickoff (retractable roof, likely closed) — a real drag on long tries.
1.8 FG tries projected, just under the 2.0 league median this week.
BUF's offense stalls in the red zone 1.3 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has BUF at 23.5 points as 1.5-point favorites.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Nick Folk	Tyler Bass
Projected points	7.87.87.8	7.57.57.5
Consensus rank	K21	K21
Projected FG attempts	2.0	1.8
Red-zone stalls / game	1.2(2025)	1.3(2025)
Kicking conditions	Calm forecast at kickoff	rain forecast at kickoff (retractable roof, likely closed in poor weather)
Implied total · spread	19.8+3.0	23.5-1.5
Field-goal %	96.6%(2025)	—
Depth chart	K1	K1