DJ Moore or Jacory Croskey-Merritt: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Start Moore — the consensus rank and projection edges are too wide to ignore.

DJ Moore is the higher consensus play (WR26 to RB41) and projects 13.0 to Croskey-Merritt's 11.1. Croskey-Merritt's edge is availability, a clean report to Moore's Q. The gap is comfortable.

In standard scoring this is a coin flip.

DJ Moore

DJ Moore

WR26BUFvs NE

Projected Points

Start· medium
Jacory Croskey-Merritt

Jacory Croskey-Merritt

RB41WSHvs IND

Projected Points

Toss-Up· low

DJ Moore’s market

REC
O/U 3.5
-152 / +119
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 49.5
-114 / -110
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+150
Anytime Touchdown Props →

Jacory Croskey-Merritt’s market

RUSH YDS
O/U 58.5
-115 / -115
Rushing Yards Props →
REC
O/U 1.5
+122 / -155
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 5.5
-113 / -113
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+100
Anytime Touchdown Props →
NE@
BUFSun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETView the game →
IND@
WSHSun, Oct 4, 9:30 AM ETView the game →

Why DJ Moore

Start· medium

WR1 and primary target. Physical yards-after-catch separator with occasional gadget rushing and trick-play usage.

WR26 with a 22% target share and a 26.3 implied team total; the AC joint sprain is a practice limitation, not a game designation.

  • NE ranks 20 of 32 against WRs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 3-game sample).
  • Vegas implies 26.3 team points as 3.0-point favorites.
  • Listed WR on the latest depth chart with a 57% snap share.

The call

  • Volume carries the case. A 22% target share at a 13.0-point projection (WR26) puts Moore in WR2/flex range in 12-team PPR, above a typical replacement option.
  • Game script helps. His team is a 3-point favorite with a 26.3 implied total, so there should be plenty of scoring chances.
  • The NE matchup is neutral at 20 of 32. It rests on a 3-game sample with 0.25 confidence, so it neither boosts nor sinks him.
  • Risk: the 57% snap share is modest. SI.com (2026-10-01) reports an AC joint sprain and a limited Wednesday practice, though he played 42 snaps against the Chargers and carries no designation. If he picks up a designation or misses Friday practice, this becomes a toss-up.

Latest on Moore

Status

DJ Moore is doubtful to return for the second half of Sunday's game due to a shoulder injury.

Bills WR D.J. Moore doubtful to return after injuring shoulderESPN · Oct 4, 2026
StatusPreviously

DJ Moore is questionable to return to Sunday's Week 4 game against the Patriots due to a shoulder injury.

Bills issue injury update on WR DJ Moore vs. Patriots Week 4buffalobills.com · Oct 4, 2026
StatusPreviously

DJ Moore remains on the injury report with an AC joint sprain; was limited on Wednesday after playing 42 snaps against the Chargers.

SI.com · Oct 1, 2026
Bills mark Keon Coleman, DJ Moore, Ed Oliver as questionable

Bills wide receivers Keon Coleman and DJ Moore and defensive lineman Ed Oliver are questionable to play against the Chargers.

ESPN · Sep 25, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Jacory Croskey-Merritt

Toss-Up· low

Lead back and volume runner. Decisive one-cut rusher with tackle-breaking contact balance; limited passing-game work.

26.0 implied total and a softish IND matchup (24 of 32) give TD equity, but a 48% snap share, 3% target share and RB41 rank cap his PPR floor.

  • IND ranks 24 of 32 against RBs (one of the softer matchups, 3-game sample).
  • Vegas implies 26.0 team points as 1.5-point favorites.
  • Listed RB on the latest depth chart with a 48% snap share.

The call

  • Game environment helps: a 26.0 implied team total as a 1.5-point favorite points to scoring chances and a neutral-to-positive script for early-down work.
  • IND rates 24 of 32 against RBs, on the softer side. That composite rests on a 3-game sample at 0.25 confidence, so it shouldn't carry much weight.
  • Usage is the problem in PPR. A 48% snap share means he's splitting the backfield, and a 3% target share gives him almost no receiving floor, so his 11.1-point projection leans heavily on rushing volume and touchdowns.
  • What tips it: start him as a FLEX if your alternative is a low-volume WR or a committee back in a weaker offense. Sit him if you have a receiver or pass-catching back with a steady target share.

Head-to-head stats

MetricDJ MooreJacory Croskey-Merritt
Projected points
Consensus rankWR26RB41
Opponent vs positionNE · 20 of 323-game sampleIND · 24 of 323-game sample
Receptions22 of 3215 of 32
Receiving Yards9 of 3229 of 32
Receiving TDs24 of 32—
Targets21 of 32—
Anytime TD24 of 3225 of 32
Rushing Yards—27 of 32
Rushing TDs—29 of 32
Rushing Attempts—21 of 32
Target share22%3%
Reception share20%5%
Implied total · spread26.3-3.026.0-1.5
Depth chartWR1RB1
Snap share57%48%
Injury designationQ—
Start/Sit record0–1+1 toss-up0–0+1 toss-up

Recent form

DJ Moore — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs LAC
Week 2vs DET
Week 1vs HOU

Jacory Croskey-Merritt — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs SEA
Week 2vs DAL
Week 1vs PHI

Signal breakdown

  • 13.0 vs 11.1 projected PPR pointsDJ Moore +
  • Rank 26 vs 41DJ Moore +
  • Opponent DvP rank 20 vs 24 (32 = softest)Jacory Croskey-Merritt +
  • Implied 26.3 vs 26.0 team pointsDJ Moore +
  • Q vs no designationJacory Croskey-Merritt +
  • 57% vs 48% snap shareDJ Moore +

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