Daniel Carlson or Ka'imi Fairbairn: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 3 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Fairbairn’s stronger standing breaks a near-even opportunity split

Fairbairn’s half-point projection edge is thin for a kicker, but the K4-to-K21 consensus gap is a much clearer separator. The kickers project for nearly the same attempt volume; Houston’s more frequent red-zone stalls give Fairbairn a slight boost in field-goal chances. His stronger accuracy adds confidence on those opportunities, though Houston turning stalled drives into touchdowns is the clearest way this narrow edge could disappear.

What flips it: Houston’s red-zone trips turning into touchdowns instead of field-goal chances.

AI editor

Daniel Carlson

Daniel Carlson

K21NOvs LV

Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium
Ka'imi Fairbairn

Ka'imi Fairbairn

K4HOUvs IND

Projected Points

Start
LV@
NOSun, Sep 27, 4:25 PM ETView the game →
HOU@
INDSun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ETView the game →

Why Daniel Carlson

Toss-Up· medium

Veteran placekicker with big-leg range. Established accuracy over a long starting run.

Dome game, 23.0 implied total and 2.2 projected FGA give a clean floor, but K21 consensus rank puts him just outside the 12-team starter tier.

  • The dome removes weather as a conversion risk.
  • Carlson’s 60-yard range gives him a route to points on drives that stall well outside easy field-goal territory.

The call

  • Environment is as good as it gets for a kicker: indoors with no weather risk, 82% accuracy (22/27) and a 50-plus make in 4 games with a 60-yard long, so the deep tries are live.
  • Volume is the question — 1.8 FGs on 2.2 attempts plus 2.5 extra points off a 23.0 implied total is a middling 8.9-point projection, and 1.5 red-zone stalls per game is the main source of FG chances rather than a high-scoring script.
  • Role is locked (PK1, no injury designation), so nothing here is a health or usage risk — it is purely a tier question at K21.
  • Tip-in: if your alternative is a kicker outdoors or attached to a team with an implied total under ~22, start Carlson; if you have a top-12 kicker in a similar dome, sit him.

Why Ka'imi Fairbairn

Start

Veteran starting K. Reliable long-range leg and established accuracy.

Start — K4 consensus and projection: 2.3 FG tries projected, above the 2.0 median, and 1.8 red-zone stalls a game.

  • Fairbairn’s established accuracy makes similar attempt volume more dependable.
  • His history of 50-plus-yard makes supports his value if Houston stalls from long range.

Latest on Fairbairn

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

MetricDaniel CarlsonKa'imi Fairbairn
Projected points
Consensus rankK21K4
Projected FG attempts2.22.3
Red-zone stalls / game1.5(2025)1.8(2025)
Kicking conditionsIndoors, no weather riskRetractable roof, calm forecast either way
Implied total · spread23.0-3.523.5-1.5
Field-goal %81.5%(2025)91.7%(2025)
Depth chartK1K1
Start/Sit record0–0+1 toss-up0–1

Recent form

Daniel Carlson — last 2 weeks

Week 2vs BAL
Week 1vs DET

Ka'imi Fairbairn — last 2 weeks

Week 2vs CIN
Week 1vs BUF

Signal breakdown

  • 8.8 vs 9.3 projected PPR pointsKa'imi Fairbairn +
  • Rank 21 vs 4Ka'imi Fairbairn +
  • 2.2 vs 2.3 projected attemptsKa'imi Fairbairn +
  • 1.5 vs 1.8 red-zone stalls per gameKa'imi Fairbairn +
  • dome vs 6 mph, 70°F, cleareven
  • Implied 23.0 vs 23.5 team pointsKa'imi Fairbairn +
  • No injury designationseven

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