Start Cam Little over Evan McPherson — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Start Little — the consensus rank and weather edges are too wide to ignore.

Cam Little is the higher consensus play (K6 to K11) and kicks in the friendlier conditions (4 mph wind, clear to McPherson's 4 mph wind, thunderstorm). McPherson's edge is the game script, 27.0 implied points to 24.0. The gap is comfortable.

Cam Little

K6JAXvs CLE

8.88.88.8 Projected Points

Start

Evan McPherson

K11CINvs TB

8.58.58.5 Projected Points

Start· medium

Why Cam Little

Start

Starting K with elite leg strength. Proven range well beyond 55 yards.

Start — K6 by consensus, projects K7 this week: 1.6 red-zone stalls a game, and 8.8 pts projected vs CLE.

Calm forecast at kickoff.
2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
JAX's offense stalls in the red zone 1.6 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has JAX at 24 points as 7.5-point favorites.

Why Evan McPherson

Start· medium

Starting placekicker with big-leg range. Proven clutch postseason performer.

27.0 implied total, calm open-air kickoff and 89% accuracy (25/28) make McPherson a fine K12 play with 2.7 XPs baked in.

rain at kickoff — a real drag on long tries.
1.9 FG tries projected, just under the 2.0 league median this week.
CIN's offense stalls in the red zone 1.1 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has CIN at 27 points as 3.5-point favorites.

The call

Cincinnati's 27.0 implied team total is the key number — that's a heavy scoring script, and the projection already banks 2.7 extra points on top of 1.9 field-goal tries.
Calm forecast at kickoff with the roof open removes the main variable that separates kickers; nothing about the environment caps his ceiling.
He's the locked-in PK1 with no designation and 89% accuracy (25/28), plus four 50-plus makes and a 63-yard long — long-range chances are live points, not dead drives.
The one drag is volume: 1.1 red-zone stalls per game and 1.9 projected attempts is average, so the floor rides on touchdowns turning into extra points rather than a fat FG script.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Cam Little	Evan McPherson
Projected points	8.88.88.8	8.58.58.5
Consensus rank	K6	K11
Projected FG attempts	2.1	1.9
Red-zone stalls / game	1.6(2025)	1.1(2025)
Kicking conditions	Calm forecast at kickoff	rain forecast at kickoff
Implied total · spread	24.0-7.5	27.0-3.5
Field-goal %	88.2%(2025)	89.3%(2025)
Depth chart	K1	K1