Cam Little or Daniel Carlson: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 3 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Too close to call — the edges cancel out.

Cam Little and Daniel Carlson grade out even this week. Little's best edge is the consensus rank (K7 to K21), Carlson's best edge is red-zone opportunity (1.5 to 0.3 stalls per game) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.

Cam Little

Cam Little

K7JAXvs NE

Projected Points

Start
Daniel Carlson

Daniel Carlson

K21NOvs LV

Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium
NE@
JAXSun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ETView the game →
LV@
NOSun, Sep 27, 4:25 PM ETView the game →

Why Cam Little

Start

Starting K with elite leg strength. Proven range well beyond 55 yards.

Start — K7 by consensus, projects K11 this week: 0.3 red-zone stalls a game, and 8.7 pts projected vs NE.

  • Calm forecast at kickoff.
  • 2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
  • JAX's offense stalls in the red zone 0.3 times a game — that's where kicker points come from.
  • Vegas has JAX at 23.5 points as 1.5-point favorites.

Why Daniel Carlson

Toss-Up· medium

Veteran placekicker with big-leg range. Established accuracy over a long starting run.

Dome game, 23.0 implied total and 2.2 projected FGA give a clean floor, but K21 consensus rank puts him just outside the 12-team starter tier.

  • Kicks indoors — no weather risk.
  • 2.2 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
  • NO's offense stalls in the red zone 1.5 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
  • Vegas has NO at 23 points as 3.5-point favorites.

The call

  • Environment is as good as it gets for a kicker: indoors with no weather risk, 82% accuracy (22/27) and a 50-plus make in 4 games with a 60-yard long, so the deep tries are live.
  • Volume is the question — 1.8 FGs on 2.2 attempts plus 2.5 extra points off a 23.0 implied total is a middling 8.9-point projection, and 1.5 red-zone stalls per game is the main source of FG chances rather than a high-scoring script.
  • Role is locked (PK1, no injury designation), so nothing here is a health or usage risk — it is purely a tier question at K21.
  • Tip-in: if your alternative is a kicker outdoors or attached to a team with an implied total under ~22, start Carlson; if you have a top-12 kicker in a similar dome, sit him.

Head-to-head stats

MetricCam LittleDaniel Carlson
Projected points
Consensus rankK7K21
Projected FG attempts2.12.2
Red-zone stalls / game0.31.5(2025)
Kicking conditionsCalm forecast at kickoffIndoors, no weather risk
Implied total · spread23.5-1.523.0-3.5
Field-goal %88.2%(2025)81.5%(2025)
Depth chartK1K1
Start/Sit record—0–0+1 toss-up

Recent form

Cam Little — last 2 weeks

Week 2vs DEN
Week 1vs CLE

Daniel Carlson — last 2 weeks

Week 2vs BAL
Week 1vs DET

Signal breakdown

  • 8.7 vs 8.8 projected PPR pointsDaniel Carlson +
  • Rank 7 vs 21Cam Little +
  • 2.1 vs 2.2 projected attemptsDaniel Carlson +
  • 0.3 vs 1.5 red-zone stalls per gameDaniel Carlson +
  • 8 mph, 84°F, clear vs domeeven
  • Implied 23.5 vs 23.0 team pointsCam Little +
  • No injury designationseven

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