Cairo Santos or Tyler Bass: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 2 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Too close to call — the edges cancel out.
Cairo Santos and Tyler Bass grade out even this week. Santos's best edge is the consensus rank (K11 to K21), Bass's best edge is the weather (7 mph wind, overcast to 9 mph wind, drizzle) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.
Cairo Santos
K11CHIvs MIN
9.19.19.1 Projected Points
Start· medium
Tyler Bass
K21BUFvs DET
8.78.78.7 Projected Points
Start· medium
Why Cairo Santos
Start· mediumVeteran starting K. Accurate mid-range leg with long tenure as the team's kicker.
K11 with a 24.5 implied total, calm open-air forecast and 1.4 red-zone stalls per game — 2.1 FG tries plus 2.8 XPs is a clean K start.
- rain at kickoff — a real drag on long tries.
- 2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
- CHI's offense stalls in the red zone 1.4 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
- Vegas has CHI at 24.5 points as 3.5-point favorites.
The call
- Projected 9.1 points at K11 clears the bar for a 12-team K slot, built on 1.8 FGs of 2.1 attempts plus 2.8 extra points.
- A 24.5 implied team total with 1.4 red-zone stalls per game is the ideal kicker mix: enough scoring to produce XPs and enough drive-stalling to produce field goals.
- Calm forecast in an open-air stadium removes the main kicker variable, and 83% accuracy (25/30) with a 54-yard long and three 50-plus makes gives range upside.
- Locked in as PK1 with no injury designation — no usage risk, just the normal week-to-week variance of the position.
Why Tyler Bass
Start· mediumStarting placekicker. Strong leg on kickoffs and long-range attempts.
27.8 implied total plus calm, open-roof conditions gives Bass a clean 3.1 XP floor and 1.8 FG tries as the locked-in PK1.
- Calm forecast at kickoff.
- 1.8 FG tries projected, just under the 2.0 league median this week.
- BUF's offense stalls in the red zone 1.3 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
- Vegas has BUF at 27.8 points as 3-point favorites.
The call
- Buffalo's 27.8 implied team total is the driver here — 3.1 projected extra points is a floor most kickers can't match, and it comes with 1.8 FG attempts on top.
- Calm forecast with the roof open removes the main thing that separates kickers week to week; no wind or precipitation to shrink the 50-plus range.
- Only 1.3 red-zone stalls per game means fewer stalled-drive field goals, which caps the ceiling a bit — that's why he sits at K21 in consensus rank despite 8.7 projected points.
- PK1 on the depth chart with no injury designation; nothing about the role is in question.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Cairo Santos | Tyler Bass |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 9.19.19.1 | 8.78.78.7 |
| Consensus rank | K11 | K21 |
| Projected FG attempts | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| Red-zone stalls / game | 1.4(2025) | 1.3(2025) |
| Kicking conditions | rain forecast at kickoff | Calm forecast at kickoff |
| Implied total · spread | 24.5-3.5 | 27.8-3.0 |
| Field-goal % | 83.3%(2025) | — |
| Depth chart | K1 | K1 |
| Start/Sit record | 0–0+1 toss-up | — |
Recent form
Cairo Santos — last 1 week
| Week 1 | vs CAR | 12.012.012.0 |
Tyler Bass — last 1 week
| Week 1 | vs HOU | 13.013.013.0 |
Signal breakdown
- 9.1 vs 8.7 projected PPR pointsCairo Santos +
- Rank 11 vs 21Cairo Santos +
- 2.1 vs 1.8 projected attemptsCairo Santos +
- 1.4 vs 1.3 red-zone stalls per gameCairo Santos +
- 9 mph, 68°F, drizzle vs 7 mph, 67°F, overcastTyler Bass +
- Implied 24.5 vs 27.8 team pointsTyler Bass +
- No injury designationseven
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