Cairo Santos or Dominic Zvada: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 3 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Start Santos — the weather and game script edges are too wide to ignore.

Cairo Santos kicks in the friendlier conditions (4 mph wind, clear to Zvada's 15 mph wind, drizzle) and plays in the better game script (24.0 implied team points to 23.8). Zvada's edge is red-zone opportunity, 1.9 to 1.4 stalls per game. The gap is narrow.

Cairo Santos

Cairo Santos

K11CHIvs PHI

Projected Points

Sit
Dominic Zvada

Dominic Zvada

KNYGvs TEN

Projected Points

Toss-Up· low
PHI@
CHIMon, Sep 28, 8:15 PM ETView the game →
TEN@
NYGSun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ETView the game →

Why Cairo Santos

Sit

Veteran starting K. Accurate mid-range leg with long tenure as the team's kicker.

Sit — K11 by consensus, projects K21 this week: 1.4 red-zone stalls a game, and 7.9 pts projected vs PHI.

  • Calm forecast at kickoff.
  • 2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
  • CHI's offense stalls in the red zone 1.4 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
  • Vegas has CHI at 24 points as 1.5-point favorites.

Why Dominic Zvada

Toss-Up· low

Starting PK with big leg and strong college accuracy. Rookie with no prior NFL sample.

Solid volume (1.9 RZ stalls/game, 23.8 implied total) but 15 mph wind and rain in an open stadium cap his ceiling vs TEN.

  • 15 mph wind and rain at kickoff — a real drag on long tries.
  • 2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
  • NYG's offense stalls in the red zone 1.9 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
  • Vegas has NYG at 23.8 points as 3-point favorites.

The call

  • Volume is there: 8.6 projected points on 1.8 FG made of 2.1 attempts plus 2.4 extra points. His offense stalls in the red zone 1.9 times per game, a steady source of short field-goal tries.
  • Game script is favorable. A 23.8 implied team total as a 3-point favorite suggests plenty of scoring drives, and he is the locked-in PK1 with no injury designation.
  • Weather is the drag. A 15 mph wind and rain forecast with an open roof threatens longer attempts and could push the offense to go for it rather than kick. Treat him as a short-range-only option this week.
  • What tips it: start him if the forecast calms by kickoff or your alternative is a dome kicker with a thin projection. Pivot to an indoor kicker with similar volume if the wind holds.

Head-to-head stats

MetricCairo SantosDominic Zvada
Projected points
Consensus rankK11—
Projected FG attempts2.12.1
Red-zone stalls / game1.4(2025)1.9(2025)
Kicking conditionsCalm forecast at kickoff15 mph wind and rain forecast at kickoff
Implied total · spread24.0-1.523.8-3.0
Field-goal %83.3%(2025)—
Depth chartK1K1
Start/Sit record0–1+1 toss-up0–1+1 toss-up

Recent form

Cairo Santos — last 2 weeks

Week 2vs MIN
Week 1vs CAR

Dominic Zvada — last 2 weeks

Week 2vs LAR
Week 1vs DAL

Signal breakdown

  • 7.9 vs 8.6 projected PPR pointsDominic Zvada +
  • Consensus position rankeven
  • 2.1 vs 2.1 projected attemptseven
  • 1.4 vs 1.9 red-zone stalls per gameDominic Zvada +
  • 4 mph, 62°F, clear vs 15 mph, 62°F, drizzleCairo Santos +
  • Implied 24.0 vs 23.8 team pointsCairo Santos +
  • No injury designationseven

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