Cairo Santos or Cam Little: Toss-Up — Week 2 Start/Sit Verdict

Too close to call — the edges cancel out.

Cairo Santos and Cam Little grade out even this week. Santos's best edge is the game script (24.5 implied points to 20.5), Little's best edge is the consensus rank (K7 to K11) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.

Cairo Santos

K11CHIvs MIN

9.19.19.1 Projected Points

Start· medium

Cam Little

K7JAXvs DEN

8.28.28.2 Projected Points

Sit

MIN@

CHISun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ETView the game →

JAX@

DENSun, Sep 20, 4:05 PM ETView the game →

Why Cairo Santos

Start· medium

Veteran starting K. Accurate mid-range leg with long tenure as the team's kicker.

K11 with a 24.5 implied total, calm open-air forecast and 1.4 red-zone stalls per game — 2.1 FG tries plus 2.8 XPs is a clean K start.

Calm forecast at kickoff.
2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
CHI's offense stalls in the red zone 1.4 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has CHI at 24.5 points as 3.5-point favorites.

The call

Projected 9.1 points at K11 clears the bar for a 12-team K slot, built on 1.8 FGs of 2.1 attempts plus 2.8 extra points.
A 24.5 implied team total with 1.4 red-zone stalls per game is the ideal kicker mix: enough scoring to produce XPs and enough drive-stalling to produce field goals.
Calm forecast in an open-air stadium removes the main kicker variable, and 83% accuracy (25/30) with a 54-yard long and three 50-plus makes gives range upside.
Locked in as PK1 with no injury designation — no usage risk, just the normal week-to-week variance of the position.

Why Cam Little

Sit

Starting K with elite leg strength. Proven range well beyond 55 yards.

Sit — K7 by consensus, projects K18 this week: 1.6 red-zone stalls a game, and 8.2 pts projected vs DEN.

Calm forecast at kickoff.
2.0 FG tries projected, right at the 2.0 league median this week.
JAX's offense stalls in the red zone 1.6 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has JAX at 20.5 points as 2.5-point dogs.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Cairo Santos	Cam Little
Projected points	9.19.19.1	8.28.28.2
Consensus rank	K11	K7
Projected FG attempts	2.1	2.0
Red-zone stalls / game	1.4(2025)	1.6(2025)
Kicking conditions	Calm forecast at kickoff	Calm forecast at kickoff
Implied total · spread	24.5-3.5	20.5+2.5
Field-goal %	83.3%(2025)	88.2%(2025)
Depth chart	K1	K1
Start/Sit record	0–0+1 toss-up	—

Signal breakdown

9.1 vs 8.2 projected PPR pointsCairo Santos +
Rank 11 vs 7Cam Little +
2.1 vs 2.0 projected attemptsCairo Santos +
1.4 vs 1.6 red-zone stalls per gameCam Little +
9 mph, 66°F, overcast vs 7 mph, 71°F, cleareven
Implied 24.5 vs 20.5 team pointsCairo Santos +
No injury designationseven

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Cairo Santos or Cam Little: Who Should You Start?