Luther Burden III or Woody Marks: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Start Burden — the projection and consensus rank edges are too wide to ignore.

Luther Burden III projects 12.4 to Marks's 8.5 and is the higher consensus play (WR27 to RB44). Marks's edge is the matchup, 17 of 32 to 13. The gap is wide.

Luther Burden III

Luther Burden III

WR27CHIvs NYJ

Projected Points

Start· medium
Woody Marks

Woody Marks

RB44HOUvs DAL

Projected Points

Sit

Luther Burden III’s market

REC
O/U 4.5
-105 / -121
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 46.5
-114 / -110
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+200
Anytime Touchdown Props →

Woody Marks’s market

RUSH YDS
O/U 34.5
-135 / +100
Rushing Yards Props →
REC
O/U 1.5
-140 / +110
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 9.5
-111 / -113
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+205
Anytime Touchdown Props →
NYJ@
CHISun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETView the game →
DAL@
HOUSun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETView the game →

Why Luther Burden III

Start· medium

WR2 and outside starter opposite Rome Odunze. Explosive yards-after-catch threat with manufactured-touch usage.

26% target share and a 27.0 implied team total as 8.5-pt favorites make WR27 Burden a solid WR3/flex despite a middling NYJ matchup.

  • NYJ ranks 13 of 32 against WRs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 3-game sample).
  • Vegas implies 27.0 team points as 8.5-point favorites.
  • Listed WR-2 on the latest depth chart with a 64% snap share.

The call

  • Usage is the driver: a 26% target share over 3 games is WR1-caliber volume, even as the WR-2 on the depth chart.
  • Game environment is strong. The 27.0 implied team total and -8.5 spread point to plenty of scoring chances, though a big lead could trim late-game passing volume.
  • The NYJ matchup grades neutral (13 of 32), and on a 3-game sample at 0.25 confidence it shouldn't move the needle much either way.
  • The main risk is a 64% snap share, which caps his ceiling if the rotation holds. At a 12.4 projection (WR27) he still clears typical replacement-level flex options.

Latest on Burden

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Woody Marks

Sit

RB2 behind David Montgomery. Between-the-tackles committee back who carried 196 times for 703 yards as a rookie with light pass-game usage.

Sit — bench-tier RB at consensus RB44: 7% target share, 8.5 PPR projected vs DAL.

  • DAL ranks 17 of 32 against RBs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 4-game sample).
  • Vegas implies 25.0 team points as 2.5-point favorites.
  • Listed RB on the latest depth chart with a 45% snap share.

Latest on Marks

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

MetricLuther Burden IIIWoody Marks
Projected points
Consensus rankWR27RB44
Opponent vs positionNYJ · 13 of 323-game sampleDAL · 17 of 324-game sample
Receptions19 of 324 of 32
Receiving Yards4 of 327 of 32
Receiving TDs15 of 32—
Targets15 of 32—
Anytime TD14 of 3226 of 32
Rushing Yards—17 of 32
Rushing TDs—25 of 32
Rushing Attempts—23 of 32
Target share26%7%
Reception share23%8%
Implied total · spread27.0-8.525.0-2.5
Depth chartWR2RB2
Snap share64%45%
Start/Sit record0–1—

Recent form

Luther Burden III — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs PHI
Week 2vs MIN
Week 1vs CAR

Woody Marks — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs IND
Week 2vs CIN
Week 1vs BUF

Signal breakdown

  • 12.4 vs 8.5 projected PPR pointsLuther Burden III +
  • Rank 27 vs 44Luther Burden III +
  • Opponent DvP rank 13 vs 17 (32 = softest)Woody Marks +
  • Implied 27.0 vs 25.0 team pointsLuther Burden III +
  • No injury designationseven
  • 64% vs 45% snap shareLuther Burden III +

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