Darren Waller or Kyle Pitts Sr.: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Start Waller for the red-zone connection Pitts hasn’t matched
Start Waller: at tight end, this projected gap is meaningful, and his red-zone connection with Bryce Young gives him a direct path to deliver. Detroit’s soft matchup helps, though its short sample and Waller’s reduced role keep this from being comfortable. Pitts has the stronger every-down footing and a more explosive seam profile, but his thin target involvement makes that upside harder to bank on right now.
What flips it: Pitts claiming a larger share of Atlanta’s targets.
Sources: CBS Sports · Sep 29, 2026 · ESPN · Sep 24, 2026
AI editor
Darren Waller
6.38.210.1 Projected Points
Kyle Pitts Sr.
4.45.97.4 Projected Points
Darren Waller’s market
Kyle Pitts Sr.’s market
Why Darren Waller
Start· mediumBackup TE and veteran pass-catching weapon. Former Pro Bowl-caliber mismatch target back from retirement, still a red-zone threat in a reduced snap share.
10.1-point projection is TE1-range, and DET grades 32 of 32 vs TEs. A 43% snap share keeps this from being a lock.
- Young has looked to Waller frequently, including in the red zone; that connection can overcome limited snaps.
- Detroit’s TE matchup boosts the case, but the three-game sample makes that signal less secure.
The call
- Matchup: DET ranks 32 of 32 in DvP vs tight ends, the softest in the league. It is only a 3-game sample (confidence 0.25), so treat it as a tailwind, not a guarantee.
- Production: CBS Sports (2026-09-29) reports he led the Panthers in receptions and targets through three games, with 10 catches for 112 yards and two TDs. A 10.1 PPR projection clears a typical replacement-level TE.
- Risk: a 43% snap share and 12% target share are thin for a starting TE. Part of his output has come from two TDs, so his floor is shaky.
- Game environment: a 22.3 implied team total gives him reasonable scoring chances. We lean start over the house toss-up because of the projection plus the matchup. Bench him only if you have a TE with a full-time role.
Latest on Waller
Clicked frequently with Bryce Young, leading Panthers in receptions and targets while recording 10 catches for 112 yards and two TDs in first three games.
CBS Sports · Sep 29, 2026If injuries or tough matchups have you seeking help, Matt Bowen provides options at each key position.
The veteran tight end's height, catch radius and history of red zone success make him a tough cover in big moments.
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Why Kyle Pitts Sr.
Toss-Up· lowTE1 and vertical seam threat. Rare size-speed mismatch profile with high-volume target share in the passing game.
TE7 rank and a soft-leaning NO matchup (25 of 32) clash with a thin 53% snap / 8% target share role.
- Pitts’ TE1 role and size-speed mismatch give him more room to break out if his involvement grows.
- His greater share of the snaps is a real advantage, even though it hasn’t produced steady targets lately.
The call
- The case for starting him is his consensus TE7 rank and a 7.4-point projection, which sits near low-end TE1 territory at a thin position. NO grades 25 of 32 against tight ends, on the softer side.
- The case against is usage. A 53% snap share and 8% target share over 3 games is a part-time role, and that supports the house sit-lean.
- The matchup signal is shaky. It rests on a 3-game sample with only 0.25 confidence, so don't lean on it heavily.
- A 21.5 implied team total is middling and gives no strong scoring bump. Start him over a streamer with a weaker role, but bench him for any TE seeing a clearly bigger target share.
Latest on Pitts
Odds, bets and analysis to help you bet Falcons-Packers on "Thursday Night Football."
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Darren Waller | Kyle Pitts Sr. |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 6.38.210.1 | 4.45.97.4 |
| Consensus rank | — | TE7 |
| Opponent vs position | DET · 32 of 323-game sample | NO · 25 of 323-game sample |
| Receptions | 32 of 32 | 31 of 32 |
| Receiving Yards | 32 of 32 | 30 of 32 |
| Receiving TDs | 32 of 32 | 17 of 32 |
| Targets | 32 of 32 | 31 of 32 |
| Anytime TD | 32 of 32 | 17 of 32 |
| Target share | 12% | 8% |
| Reception share | 14% | 4% |
| Implied total · spread | 22.3+3.0 | 21.5+2.5 |
| Depth chart | TE2 | TE1 |
| Snap share | 43% | 53% |
| Start/Sit record | — | 1–1+2 toss-ups |
Recent form
Darren Waller — last 3 weeks
| Week 3 | vs CLE | 5.17.610.1 |
| Week 2 | vs ATL | 15.316.818.3 |
| Week 1 | vs CHI | 2.83.84.8 |
Kyle Pitts Sr. — last 3 weeks
| Week 3 | vs GB | 0.51.01.5 |
| Week 2 | vs CAR | 1.52.02.5 |
| Week 1 | vs PIT | 0.00.00.0 |
Signal breakdown
- 10.1 vs 7.4 projected PPR pointsDarren Waller +
- Consensus position rankeven
- Opponent DvP rank 32 vs 25 (32 = softest)Darren Waller +
- Implied 22.3 vs 21.5 team pointsDarren Waller +
- No injury designationseven
- 43% vs 53% snap shareKyle Pitts Sr. +
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