Darren Waller or Durham Smythe: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Start Waller — Smythe is ruled out.
Durham Smythe is ruled out, which settles it: Darren Waller is the only startable side of this call. Waller projects 10.1 PPR points.
Darren Waller
6.38.210.1 Projected Points
Durham Smythe
0.91.11.4 Projected Points
Darren Waller’s market
Durham Smythe’s market
Why Darren Waller
Start· mediumBackup TE and veteran pass-catching weapon. Former Pro Bowl-caliber mismatch target back from retirement, still a red-zone threat in a reduced snap share.
10.1-point projection is TE1-range, and DET grades 32 of 32 vs TEs. A 43% snap share keeps this from being a lock.
- DET ranks 32 of 32 against TEs (one of the softer matchups, 3-game sample).
- Vegas implies 22.3 team points as 3.0-point underdogs.
- Listed TE on the latest depth chart with a 43% snap share.
The call
- Matchup: DET ranks 32 of 32 in DvP vs tight ends, the softest in the league. It is only a 3-game sample (confidence 0.25), so treat it as a tailwind, not a guarantee.
- Production: CBS Sports (2026-09-29) reports he led the Panthers in receptions and targets through three games, with 10 catches for 112 yards and two TDs. A 10.1 PPR projection clears a typical replacement-level TE.
- Risk: a 43% snap share and 12% target share are thin for a starting TE. Part of his output has come from two TDs, so his floor is shaky.
- Game environment: a 22.3 implied team total gives him reasonable scoring chances. We lean start over the house toss-up because of the projection plus the matchup. Bench him only if you have a TE with a full-time role.
Latest on Waller
Clicked frequently with Bryce Young, leading Panthers in receptions and targets while recording 10 catches for 112 yards and two TDs in first three games.
CBS Sports · Sep 29, 2026If injuries or tough matchups have you seeking help, Matt Bowen provides options at each key position.
The veteran tight end's height, catch radius and history of red zone success make him a tough cover in big moments.
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Why Durham Smythe
SitTE2 in blocking role. Veteran in-line presence, minimal target share.
Ruled out — verdict void; pivot to your bench.
- Currently ruled out — not a viable start until his status changes.
- TEN ranks 5 of 32 against TEs (one of the tougher matchups, 3-game sample).
- Vegas implies 28.0 team points as 8.5-point favorites.
- Listed TE on the latest depth chart with a 59% snap share.
Latest on Smythe
Durham Smythe was upgraded to full practice participation Thursday after being limited Wednesday with a heel injury.
Yahoo Sports · Oct 2, 2026Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Darren Waller | Durham Smythe |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 6.38.210.1 | 0.91.11.4 |
| Opponent vs position | DET · 32 of 323-game sample | TEN · 5 of 323-game sample |
| Receptions | 32 of 32 | 6 of 32 |
| Receiving Yards | 32 of 32 | 1 of 32 |
| Receiving TDs | 32 of 32 | 1 of 32 |
| Targets | 32 of 32 | 6 of 32 |
| Anytime TD | 32 of 32 | 9 of 32 |
| Target share | 12% | 4% |
| Reception share | 14% | 3% |
| Implied total · spread | 22.3+3.0 | 28.0-8.5 |
| Depth chart | TE2 | TE2 |
| Snap share | 43% | 59% |
| Injury designation | — | out |
Recent form
Darren Waller — last 3 weeks
| Week 3 | vs CLE | 5.17.610.1 |
| Week 2 | vs ATL | 15.316.818.3 |
| Week 1 | vs CHI | 2.83.84.8 |
Durham Smythe — last 3 weeks
| Week 3 | vs DAL | 0.00.00.0 |
| Week 2 | vs NO | 0.00.00.0 |
| Week 1 | vs IND | 0.40.91.4 |
Signal breakdown
- 10.1 vs 1.4 projected PPR pointsDarren Waller +
- Consensus position rankeven
- Opponent DvP rank 32 vs 5 (32 = softest)Darren Waller +
- Implied 22.3 vs 28.0 team pointsDurham Smythe +
- A ruled-out player cannot be a startDarren Waller +
- 43% vs 59% snap shareDurham Smythe +
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