Daniel Jones or Drake Maye: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Start Maye — the consensus rank and projection edges are too wide to ignore.

Drake Maye is the higher consensus play (QB4 to QB20) and projects 17.5 to Jones's 15.2. Jones's edge is the game script, 24.5 implied points to 23.3. The gap is comfortable.

Daniel Jones

Daniel Jones

QB20INDvs WSH

Projected Points

Toss-Up· low
Drake Maye

Drake Maye

QB4NEvs BUF

Projected Points

Start

Daniel Jones’s market

PASS YDS
O/U 219.5
-113 / -113
Passing Yards Props →
PASS TD
O/U 1.5
+107 / -136
Passing Touchdowns Props →
INT
O/U 0.5
-103 / -123
Interceptions Thrown Props →
RUSH YDS
O/U 10.5
-113 / -113
Rushing Yards Props →

Drake Maye’s market

PASS YDS
O/U 226.5
-115 / -115
Passing Yards Props →
PASS TD
O/U 1.5
+137 / -176
Passing Touchdowns Props →
INT
O/U 0.5
-136 / +107
Interceptions Thrown Props →
RUSH YDS
O/U 27.5
-115 / -109
Rushing Yards Props →
IND@
WSHSun, Oct 4, 9:30 AM ETView the game →
NE@
BUFSun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETView the game →

Why Daniel Jones

Toss-Up· low

Starting QB with mobility and play-extension ability. Rebounded as an efficient distributor in a run-heavy, play-action offense.

Soft WSH matchup (25 of 32) and a 24.5 implied total help, but a QB20 rank sits outside the top-12 starter tier in 12-team leagues.

  • WSH ranks 25 of 32 against QBs (one of the softer matchups, 3-game sample).
  • Vegas implies 24.5 team points as 1.5-point underdogs.
  • Listed QB on the latest depth chart with a 100% snap share.

The call

  • Matchup leans favorable: WSH grades 25 of 32 vs QBs, but that's a 3-game sample at 0.25 confidence, so it shouldn't carry much weight on its own.
  • Game environment is solid. A 24.5 implied team total and a near-even 1.5 spread point to a competitive game where Jones keeps throwing.
  • The rank is the problem. A 15.2-point projection at QB20 puts him well below the 12 starting QBs in a standard league, so he's a streamer, not a set-and-forget starter.
  • What tips it: start him if your alternative is a QB ranked in the high teens or worse, or if you're covering a bye. Sit him for any top-15 option. The ESPN 'hot starters' line is an unverified headline and doesn't move the needle.

Latest on Jones

Role

Daniel Jones scored on a four-yard rushing attempt in the game.

Daniel Jones punches in first rushing touchdown since December 2025colts.com · Oct 4, 2026
5 Colts Things: DeForest Buckner did WHAT (!!), Colts' international plan works again, Daniel Jones seeking solutions for turnovers, Spencer Shrader continues hot streak in win over Commanders

DeForest Buckner continued to be the standard not only for his impact on games, but the effort he gives, in the Colts' Week 4 win over the Washington Commanders at Tottenham Stadium.

colts.com · Oct 5, 2026
5 Colts Things: Josh Downs' chemistry with Daniel Jones shines, DeForest Buckner dominates, Cowboys-Ravens game shows importance of Rigoberto Sanchez's kickoffs

The Colts' narrow win over the Houston Texans required both standout performances and sneaky important contributions for this group to earn its first victory of 2026.

colts.com · Sep 28, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Drake Maye

Start

Franchise starting QB. Big-armed dual-threat with off-script creation and rising MVP-tier trajectory.

Start — every-week QB start at consensus QB4: BUF is the 7th-softest matchup vs QBs, 95% snap share.

  • BUF ranks 26 of 32 against QBs (one of the softer matchups, 4-game sample).
  • Vegas implies 23.3 team points as 3.0-point underdogs.
  • Listed QB on the latest depth chart with a 95% snap share.

Latest on Maye

Status

Maye was a full participant in Wednesday's practice.

Patriots' Drake Maye: Shoulder fine, all OK with Mike VrabelESPN · Sep 30, 2026
Status

Maye was listed on the injury report for the first time this season because of his right throwing shoulder.

Patriots' Drake Maye: Shoulder fine, all OK with Mike VrabelESPN · Sep 30, 2026
Drake Maye rebounds as Patriots hand Bills first defeat

Drake Maye snapped out of his early-season slide with a clutch performance as the New England Patriots upset the Buffalo Bills 29-26 at Highmark Stadium in a result that coach Mike Vrabel highlighted as critical for the defending AFC champions.

ESPN · Oct 4, 2026
Patriots preach patience when it comes to receiver WR Romeo Doubs' modest start

After the Patriots signed him to a four-year deal in March, Doubs is searching for his footing in the offense entering Week 4.

ESPN · Oct 3, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

MetricDaniel JonesDrake Maye
Projected points
Consensus rankQB20QB4
Opponent vs positionWSH · 25 of 323-game sampleBUF · 26 of 324-game sample
Passing Yards29 of 3227 of 32
Passing TDs32 of 3229 of 32
Passing Completions27 of 3227 of 32
Passing Attempts21 of 3229 of 32
Interceptions15 of 3220 of 32
Implied total · spread24.5+1.523.3+3.0
Depth chartQB1QB1
Snap share100%95%
Start/Sit record3–0+1 toss-up0–0+1 toss-up

Recent form

Daniel Jones — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs HOU
Week 2vs KC
Week 1vs BAL

Drake Maye — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs JAX
Week 2vs PIT
Week 1vs SEA

Signal breakdown

  • 15.2 vs 17.5 projected PPR pointsDrake Maye +
  • Rank 20 vs 4Drake Maye +
  • Opponent DvP rank 25 vs 26 (32 = softest)Drake Maye +
  • Implied 24.5 vs 23.3 team pointsDaniel Jones +
  • No injury designationseven
  • 100% vs 95% snap shareDaniel Jones +

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