Drake Maye or Lamar Jackson: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Too close to call — the edges cancel out.

Drake Maye and Lamar Jackson grade out even this week. Maye's best edge is availability (a clean report to Jackson's Q), Jackson's best edge is the projection (21.2 to 17.5) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.

Drake Maye

Drake Maye

QB4NEvs BUF

Projected Points

Start
Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson

QB2BALvs TEN

Projected Points

Start

Drake Maye’s market

PASS YDS
O/U 226.5
-115 / -115
Passing Yards Props →
PASS TD
O/U 1.5
+137 / -176
Passing Touchdowns Props →
INT
O/U 0.5
-136 / +107
Interceptions Thrown Props →
RUSH YDS
O/U 27.5
-115 / -109
Rushing Yards Props →

Lamar Jackson’s market

PASS YDS
O/U 209.5
-117 / -114
Passing Yards Props →
PASS TD
O/U 1.5
-126 / -101
Passing Touchdowns Props →
INT
O/U 0.5
+129 / -165
Interceptions Thrown Props →
RUSH YDS
O/U 28.5
-118 / -113
Rushing Yards Props →
NE@
BUFSun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETView the game →
TEN@
BALSun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETView the game →

Why Drake Maye

Start

Franchise starting QB. Big-armed dual-threat with off-script creation and rising MVP-tier trajectory.

Start — every-week QB start at consensus QB4: BUF is the 6th-softest matchup vs QBs, 95% snap share.

  • BUF ranks 27 of 32 against QBs (one of the softer matchups, 4-game sample).
  • Vegas implies 23.3 team points as 3.0-point underdogs.
  • Listed QB on the latest depth chart with a 95% snap share.

Latest on Maye

Status

Maye was a full participant in Wednesday's practice.

Patriots' Drake Maye: Shoulder fine, all OK with Mike VrabelESPN · Sep 30, 2026
Status

Maye was listed on the injury report for the first time this season because of his right throwing shoulder.

Patriots' Drake Maye: Shoulder fine, all OK with Mike VrabelESPN · Sep 30, 2026
Drake Maye rebounds as Patriots hand Bills first defeat

Drake Maye snapped out of his early-season slide with a clutch performance as the New England Patriots upset the Buffalo Bills 29-26 at Highmark Stadium in a result that coach Mike Vrabel highlighted as critical for the defending AFC champions.

ESPN · Oct 4, 2026
Patriots preach patience when it comes to receiver WR Romeo Doubs' modest start

After the Patriots signed him to a four-year deal in March, Doubs is searching for his footing in the offense entering Week 4.

ESPN · Oct 3, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Lamar Jackson

Start

Franchise starting QB and dual-threat superstar. Elite off-script creator with MVP-caliber efficiency and game-breaking rushing ability.

Start — every-week QB start at consensus QB2: 28.0 implied team total, 88% snap share.

  • Carries a Questionable tag — usually plays, but monitor the final report.
  • TEN ranks 10 of 32 against QBs (one of the tougher matchups, 4-game sample).
  • Vegas implies 28.0 team points as 8.5-point favorites.
  • Listed QB on the latest depth chart with a 88% snap share.

Latest on Jackson

Status

Lamar Jackson's availability for Sunday night against the Atlanta Falcons is uncertain.

Ravens unsure if Lamar Jackson (ankle) will play vs. FalconsESPN · Oct 5, 2026
Status

Jackson had not played in the second half after hurting his ankle.

Ravens QB Lamar Jackson leaves game vs. Titans with ankle injuryESPN · Oct 4, 2026
Status

Lamar Jackson suffered an ankle injury and is questionable to return to Sunday's game against the Tennessee Titans.

Lamar Jackson Suffers Ankle Injury vs. Titansbaltimoreravens.com · Oct 4, 2026
Will Lamar Jackson play in Week 5?

Jamison Hensley gives an update on Lamar Jackson's ankle heading into Week 5.

VideoESPN · Oct 5, 2026
Lamar Jackson's ankle injury a concern

Jamison Hensley reports Lamar Jackson left Sunday's game with an ankle injury and could miss next week's matchup against the Falcons.

VideoESPN · Oct 4, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

MetricDrake MayeLamar Jackson
Projected points
Consensus rankQB4QB2
Opponent vs positionBUF · 27 of 324-game sampleTEN · 10 of 324-game sample
Passing Yards28 of 3211 of 32
Passing TDs29 of 323 of 32
Passing Completions27 of 3212 of 32
Passing Attempts29 of 323 of 32
Interceptions20 of 3220 of 32
Implied total · spread23.3+3.028.0-8.5
Depth chartQB1QB1
Snap share95%88%
Injury designation—Q
Start/Sit record0–0+1 toss-up—

Recent form

Drake Maye — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs JAX
Week 2vs PIT
Week 1vs SEA

Lamar Jackson — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs DAL
Week 2vs NO
Week 1vs IND

Signal breakdown

  • 17.5 vs 21.2 projected PPR pointsLamar Jackson +
  • Rank 4 vs 2Lamar Jackson +
  • Opponent DvP rank 27 vs 10 (32 = softest)Drake Maye +
  • Implied 23.3 vs 28.0 team pointsLamar Jackson +
  • no designation vs QDrake Maye +
  • 95% vs 88% snap shareDrake Maye +

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