Daniel Carlson or Wil Lutz: Who Should You Start?

Kicker coin flip: Carlson's dome comfort vs Lutz's sharper accuracy

Carlson gets the projection nod almost entirely because he kicks indoors against a Lions defense that lets New Orleans move the ball to 20.8 implied points, padding his shot at extra attempts. Lutz counters with the better track record this year, converting at a clip that outpaces Carlson's, and Denver still gets him enough red-zone trips to keep him in the mix even with Kansas City on the other side. The board already treats these differently — Carlson's floor reads as ordinary starter volume, while Lutz carries more downside risk from that open-air Denver forecast — but the actual point range between them is close enough that neither is a clear miss. Lean Carlson only for the certainty of a roof over his head.

What flips it: A wind or snow report attached to the open-roof Denver game before kickoff.

Sources: ESPN · Aug 24, 2026

AI editor

Head-to-head stats

Signal breakdown

• 7.7 vs 7.6 projected PPR pointsDaniel Carlson +
• Rank 21 vs 20Wil Lutz +
• 2.1 vs 1.9 projected attemptsDaniel Carlson +
• 1.5 vs 1.4 red-zone stalls per gameDaniel Carlson +
• Kicking weathereven
• Implied 20.8 vs 20.0 team pointsDaniel Carlson +
• No injury designationseven

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Week 1244 players

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K · Daniel Carlson

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K · Wil Lutz

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