Daniel Carlson or Joey Slye: Who Should You Start?

Carlson edges Slye on stall rate, not raw numbers

Carlson's offense bogs down in the red zone almost twice as often as Tennessee's, and that stall rate is the single best predictor of field-goal volume — it's the whole edge here, not the marginal projection or rank gap, both of which are noise. Slye actually posts better raw accuracy and a healthier implied total, but a red-zone offense that finishes drives more often means fewer kicks, which is why his own projection undersells what looks like a stronger offense on paper. Carlson also kicks in a dome with zero weather variance, while Slye's game has no forecast locked yet on an open roof. Neither is a confident starting play this week — this is a lean, not a lock — but if you need one kicker, take the guy whose offense keeps handing him tries.

What flips it: A rain or wind forecast landing on Tennessee's open-roof game would push this further toward Carlson.

Sources: ESPN · Aug 24, 2026

AI editor

Head-to-head stats

Signal breakdown

• 7.7 vs 7.6 projected PPR pointsDaniel Carlson +
• Rank 21 vs 20Joey Slye +
• 2.1 vs 1.9 projected attemptsDaniel Carlson +
• 1.5 vs 0.9 red-zone stalls per gameDaniel Carlson +
• Kicking weathereven
• Implied 20.8 vs 21.3 team pointsJoey Slye +
• No injury designationseven

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Week 1244 players

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K · Daniel Carlson

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K · Joey Slye

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