Daniel Carlson or Jake Bates: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 3 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Start Bates: Detroit’s scoring outlook edges out Carlson’s field-goal volume

Bates gets the nod because Detroit’s stronger scoring outlook supports more extra-point chances, while both kickers have the same projected output in equally safe dome conditions. The consensus-rank gap favors Bates, but it overstates the separation in this matchup: Carlson is projected for more field-goal attempts and has a slightly stronger red-zone-stall profile. That gives Carlson a credible route to outscore him if New Orleans settles for kicks, but Bates’ better chance to benefit from touchdowns makes him the preferred start. The risk is that Detroit’s higher scoring expectation doesn’t materialize, leaving Carlson’s field-goal path more valuable.

What flips it: A lower Detroit scoring outlook that reduces Bates’ extra-point opportunities.

AI editor

Daniel Carlson

Daniel Carlson

K21NOvs LV

Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium
Jake Bates

Jake Bates

K9DETvs NYJ

Projected Points

Start· medium
LV@
NOSun, Sep 27, 4:25 PM ETView the game →
NYJ@
DETSun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ETView the game →

Why Daniel Carlson

Toss-Up· medium

Veteran placekicker with big-leg range. Established accuracy over a long starting run.

Dome game, 23.0 implied total and 2.2 projected FGA give a clean floor, but K21 consensus rank puts him just outside the 12-team starter tier.

  • Carlson’s extra projected field-goal chances give him a route to points even if New Orleans struggles to finish drives.
  • His 60-yard range offers a long-distance scoring ceiling in a weather-proof setting.

The call

  • Environment is as good as it gets for a kicker: indoors with no weather risk, 82% accuracy (22/27) and a 50-plus make in 4 games with a 60-yard long, so the deep tries are live.
  • Volume is the question — 1.8 FGs on 2.2 attempts plus 2.5 extra points off a 23.0 implied total is a middling 8.9-point projection, and 1.5 red-zone stalls per game is the main source of FG chances rather than a high-scoring script.
  • Role is locked (PK1, no injury designation), so nothing here is a health or usage risk — it is purely a tier question at K21.
  • Tip-in: if your alternative is a kicker outdoors or attached to a team with an implied total under ~22, start Carlson; if you have a top-12 kicker in a similar dome, sit him.

Why Jake Bates

Start· medium

Starting PK with a massive leg. Big-range field goal threat beyond 55.

K9 with a 27.5 implied total in a dome and 3.0 projected XPs — Bates is a top-10 kicker with no weather or role risk.

  • Detroit’s stronger scoring outlook gives Bates more opportunity to collect extra points rather than rely on field goals.
  • Bates’ K9 consensus standing reinforces the pick, though it doesn’t make the projection gap any wider.

The call

  • Consensus K9 at 8.8 projected points already clears the replacement bar in a 12-team league; you don't bench a top-10 kicker for a streamer here.
  • Detroit's 27.5 implied total and -9.5 spread point to volume: 3.0 projected extra points plus 1.9 FG attempts, with 1.4 red-zone stalls per game adding chances that die inside the 30.
  • Indoors with no weather risk and PK1 on the depth chart with no injury designation — the two things that actually sink kicker weeks are both off the table.
  • Only real wart is 79% accuracy (27/34), but he has hit from 50-plus in four games with a 59-yard long, so range isn't a limiter.

Head-to-head stats

MetricDaniel CarlsonJake Bates
Projected points
Consensus rankK21K9
Projected FG attempts2.21.9
Red-zone stalls / game1.5(2025)1.4(2025)
Kicking conditionsIndoors, no weather riskIndoors, no weather risk
Implied total · spread23.0-3.527.5-9.5
Field-goal %81.5%(2025)79.4%(2025)
Depth chartK1K1
Start/Sit record0–0+1 toss-up0–1

Recent form

Daniel Carlson — last 2 weeks

Week 2vs BAL
Week 1vs DET

Jake Bates — last 2 weeks

Week 2vs BUF
Week 1vs NO

Signal breakdown

  • 8.8 vs 8.8 projected PPR pointsDaniel Carlson +
  • Rank 21 vs 9Jake Bates +
  • 2.2 vs 1.9 projected attemptsDaniel Carlson +
  • 1.5 vs 1.4 red-zone stalls per gameDaniel Carlson +
  • dome vs domeeven
  • Implied 23.0 vs 27.5 team pointsJake Bates +
  • No injury designationseven

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